电动汽车重置，储能上行周期，市场情绪将转向

EquitiesElectronic Equipment &Instruments EV reset, ESS upcycle,sentiment set to turn Korea ◆EVcycleisbottoming; supply discipline,rapid shift to ESS, andtherecent oil price spikearedriving battery price recovery Will Cho*Analyst, Korea EV Battery, Autos and TechnologyThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchwill.cho@kr.hsbc.com ◆USESS battery marketistiltingtowardsKoreanplayers-adéjàvu of the IRA-driven EV upcycle in 2022-23 ◆SamsungSDI (Buy) is our preferred battery pick asakeyESS pivot stock, while LGES (Buy) should play catch-up * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Cyclebottoming:Despite aprolonged electric vehicle (EV) slump, we believe thecycle isat a low point, as supply-side discipline begins to ease oversupply (Asia EV/ESS Battery, 30 Mar 2026), triggering price hikesacross the value chain.Theoil price spike could also improve total cost of ownership and consumer sentiment Rapid ESS pivot:Webelieve structural ESS growth shouldalsohelp bridgetheEVdemand gap. DespiteChina’s dominance intheglobal ESS battery market, the fast-growing US market is structurallyrotatingtowardsKorean players, supported by1)localised production,2)geopolitical supply risks, and3)policytailwinds(tariffs, AMPC,and ITC), echoing the IRA-driven EV upcycle in 2022-23.Weestimate that US-madeKoreanbatteries can lower total ESS project capex by 16% vs China-made alternatives. Sector catalysts:Despite risk-offsentiment, weidentifysector catalysts:1)battery pricehikesas metal prices surged,2)stronger monthly EV sales due to higher gas prices, 3)potential OEM compensation for underutilised committed volumes, and4)incrementalESS order wins driven by AIdata centre (AIDC)expansion. PreferSamsungSDIasakeyESS pivot stockandhighlightLGES as a catch-upplay:Welower our EV battery earningsestimatesacrossthe board, while lifting ESS-related forecasts onstrongdemand in the US.SamsungSDI (006400 KP,Buy, TP520k)is our preferred pickgivenpotential upside to its ESS business, faster recovery insmall batteries, andimproving balance sheet. We lower our TP forLGES (373220 KP,Buy)to KRW500k from KRW520k onaweaker EV battery unit, but we expect improvingsentiment on EVs following the rise in pump prices to drive share price recovery. We HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com EV reset with sentiment set to turn Source:Rho Motion, HSBC estimates Source:Asian Metal, London MetalExchange, BNEF ESS boom–USstructurallyrotatingtowards Korean makers *ForeignEntitiesof ConcernSource:The White House Source:BNEFestimates(Nov2025) Source:BNEFestimates(Nov 2025) Source:BNEFestimates(Nov 2025) Source: BNEFestimates(Dec2025) Source: BNEFestimates(Dec2025) Negative catalysts arealreadypriced in Exhibit21. Foreign ownershipof LG ChemandLGES rebounded, SDI continues to fallfrom the peak in June 2023 Source: Quantiwise Source: Quantiwise Note: Battery supply chain names include Samsung SDI, LG Chem, CATL, and PanasonicSource: Bloomberg Samsung SDI (006400KP, Buy,TPKRW520,000) ◆Set to capture the ESS boom, favourable risk-reward:We think the consensusdowngrade cycle appears largely finalised, with thepowerful "ESS upcycle" marketnarrativeintact.SDI stands as the preferred vehicle for this transition, uniquely positioned tocapture the structural rotation towardshigh-density power solutions driven by the rapid ◆Maintain BuyandDCF-based TPof KRW520k:Wemakeno change to our2026-27revenue and net profitforecasts, which aresignificantlyaboveconsensus.We introduce our2028 estimates in thisreport.WebelieveSDI’s quarterly OP should have already bottomed in3Q25. Weexpectsequential OP growth to continue until 4Q26,withmore back-end loaded ESSmomentum. Despite subdued EV demand in the US, we expect EV battery shipmentsto growstarting 2Q26 onthe back of the launch ofnew mass-segment EV modelsby Korean auto Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source:Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Exhibit40.SDI:Earnings trendandoutlook LGES (373220KP, Buy, cutTP KRW500,000from KRW520,000) ◆Time to catch up:We acknowledgethat it’stoo early to say the recent surge in pumpprices will accelerate the structural shift to EVs. Strong Tesla sales y-t-d in Europe may notbe all organic but attributable to higher discounts,alow base, andtheaddition of low-pricedmodels (EU Autos, 30 Mar 2026). How