私人信贷：存在压力，但非系统性风险

Stresses, but not systemic Macro concerns about private credit are largely over-sensationalized, in our view. Are there issues? Yes. Is thereinterconnectedness? Yes. However, we believe that privatecredit, in its current form, has limited ability to cause materialcascading losses that impair the broader financial system. Corry Short+1 212 526 6253corry.short@barclays.comBCI, US Dominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, US •Private credit has grown rapidly, but its risks to macro credit conditions areoftenoverstated, in our view.Headlines frequently frame private credit as the next fault line infinancial markets, with comparisons drawn to past crises driven by excess leverage andopaque structures. While the asset class has undoubtedly expanded, increased leveragewithin the financial system, and become more interconnected, scale alone does not implysystemic risk. •Not all private credit is created equal.The term “private credit” spans a wide range ofassets, structures, and risk profiles. Lumping these exposures together obscures meaningfuldifferencesin underwriting standards, leverage constraints, and investor bases. Anyassessment of systemic risk must therefore narrow its focus to the segments where leverage,opacity, and borrower cyclicality actually intersect, which we believe is most acute in the~$1.3trn of deployed middle market direct lending in the US today. •The investor base matters.Private credit is largely held by long-term allocators such aspensions, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and insurance companies, whose liabilitiesare less sensitive to short-term pockets of volatility. Retail exposure has grown but remainsconcentrated in vehicles with explicit guardrails like gates, leverage limits and asset-liabilitymanagement (ALM) disintermediation for now. This composition reduces the likelihood ofsudden, correlated selling pressure that could accelerate broader financial contagion. •Leverage-on-leverage exists, but it is structured defensively.Private credit funds do useleverage to enhance returns, but that leverage is typically constrained by lender covenants,overcollateralization, and bankruptcy-remote structures. Banks and insurers that haveexposures to the asset class tend to have senior, well-protected positions with first-lossbuffersbeneath them. As a result, stress at the asset level does not automatically translateinto losses for the most systemically important nodes of the financial system. •The real test will be credit performance, not structure.Private credit has thrived in recentyears in a relatively benign macro environment for credit, and it has not yet experienced aprolonged downturn akin to past credit cycles. As rates likely remain higher for longer andrefinancing risks rise, defaults and recoveries will ultimately determine long-term outcomes. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 15.Completed: 25-Mar-26, 21:16 GMTReleased: 26-Mar-26, 05:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalCompleted: 25-Mar-26, 21:16 GMT Released: 26-Mar-26, 05:00 GMTRestricted - External Elevatedsoftwareexposures are likely to be among the clearest tests of underwritingdiscipline in the next phase of the cycle. Even so, the adjustment process is more likely to beslow and gradual – via lower distributions, secondary discounts, and selective losses – thanabrupt or destabilizing. Not all private credit is the same From middle market lending by BDCs tooff-balancesheet financings from hyperscalers,headlines continue to cast clouds over private credit. These two examples alone, however, showhow wide the definition of "private credit" can be. Therefore, we must more clearly define theterm before we can begin to assess the risks associated with this segment of credit markets. What is private credit and why does it exist? In its most basic sense, private credit is non-bank lending. This includes a variety of loanstructures across a myriad of collateral types. In general, loans created by private lenders areunderwritten with the expectation that they will be held to maturity – not traded. Private creditloans can be executed unilaterally or can be syndicated among a group of lenders. Thesesyndicate groups tend to be small clubs (three to five lenders) but can grow to 30+ on somelarger deals.1In any case, the lender groups are typically much smaller than public marketcomps, which can have upwards of hundreds of lenders involved in any single facility. Much of private credit is not rated. In some cases where it is rated, those rati