全球展望：裂痕，但非深坑

Cracks, but not a crater Amid geopolitical shocks, inflation concerns, and privatecredit fears, the global economy shows more resilience thanthe headlines suggest—driven by a powerful investment cycleand an AI-led earnings boom. Ajay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Foreword Macro Outlook Investors have fixated all quarter on oil price shocks, private credit fears and AI’s hit to margins.But the fundamentals, including US earnings and an acyclical investment cycle, are strongerthan current sentiment implies. There is a wall of worry – but it’s worth climbing. Investment Outlook Fear the headlines, but trust the cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Global markets have struggled this quarter as the US-Iran conflict triggered an energy shock,weighing on both equities and bonds. Unusually, this shock is colliding with an AI-driven Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 80. FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 80.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 81.Completed: 25-Mar-26, 21:23 GMTReleased: 26-Mar-26, 05:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalCompleted: 25-Mar-26, 21:23 GMT Released: 26-Mar-26, 05:00 GMTRestricted - ExternalCompleted: 25-Mar-26, 21:23 GMT Released: 26-Mar-26, 05:00 GMTRestricted - External earnings boom. Investors should focus on structural winners while hedging near-term macroand policy risks. Summary of Asset Allocation Themes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Private Credit Stresses, but not systemic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Macro concerns about private credit are largely over-sensationalized, in our view. Are thereissues? Yes. Is there interconnectedness? Yes. However, we believe that private credit, in itscurrent form, has limited ability to cause material cascading losses that impair the broaderfinancial system. Global CapEx Supersize me: The coming investment cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38 Rising capital expenditure on AI, energy infrastructure and defense, combined with the need toimprove supply-chain resilience, could spur a new investment cycle in advanced economies.Aftertwo decades of subdued investment ratios, the outlook for a return to higher investmentlooks promising. Global Oil Markets The dayafter(the Middle East conflict ends). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 The oil price shock is real and does not reflect speculative excess. Notwithstandinguncertainties about the duration of the conflict, risks to our $85/b Brent forecast for 2026 areskewed higher. Appendix Global forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71Updated forecasts for global bond yields, WTI, Brent, global equity indices, select FX/EMcurrency pairs and key economic forecasts, including GDP, inflation, debt and interest rates. Foreword Cracks, but not a crater The world faces challenges – a Middle East conflict, an energyshock, and worries about US private credit. But AI isincreasingly boosting US earnings, and the West is in themiddle of a powerful investment cycle. The global economyfaces cracks, but not a crater. Ajay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Listen The headlines have turned darker in recent weeks. Oil prices jumpedafterthe US-Iran conflictstarted. Private credit, long a quiet corner of global finance, is generating loud anduncomfortable headlines. Markets that made new record highs in late January have wobbled.Already, there are voices pointing out similarities to the 2007-08 cycle: funds being gated, creditworries, and oil rising. At the very least, these developments form a familiar narrative: late cycle,tightening financial conditions, and an economy about to tip over. We think that narrative is wrong. There are real cracks in the global economy. Some will widen. Losses will be taken. But none ofthe current stresses, in our view, rises to the level of creating a crater in US – or global – growth. Start with the most visible shock: oil. Hig