日本半导体生产设备：前端和后端设备行业状况持续活跃

Industry Conditions RemainBrisk for Both Front- & Back-endEquipment We maintain ratings of OW on Advantest (6857) and KOKUSAIELECTRIC (6525), EW on Ulvac (6728).March 31, 2026 11:34 AM GMT Advantest (OW, PT ¥30,000):Earnings remain good at a company with strength indevices for generative AI, and in addition to continuing business relating to GPUs, wesee prospects of strong growth for testers for AI ASICs. Coupled with this, weexpect resumption of DRAM maker capex, centered on HBM, to support highgrowth in the mid/longer term. In the short term, low yields at the leading US GPUmaker is another tailwind for demand for the firm's SoC testers. We think Jan-Mar Qresults will also confirm continuing strong momentum in demand centered on SoCtesters. KOKUSAI ELECTRIC (OW, PT ¥6,500):The trend in demand for front-end tools hasrecovered dramatically since end-Nov 2025, and the probability of achieving newearnings peaks in the current cycle has increased. Amid prospects of high growth forthe SPE market in the medium term, KOKUSAI's profit margins are improving too.Near term, it stands to be a relatively large beneficiary of memory capex recovery.2026 in particular looks set to see brisk investment by Chinese memory companies,and since the firm is maintaining greater share with Chinese memory customers thanother Japanese suppliers, we think the benefits should be sizeable. Demandconditions look favorable looking ahead to F3/27 as well. Ulvac (EW, PT ¥8,100):Ulvac is working to improve profit margins, and results arestarting to come through in the areas of semiconductor and electronic componentmanufacturing equipment on which it is particularly focused. The mid-term plan forF6/26-31 which it unveiled in Aug 2025 aims for further structural improvements.That said, the firm's high sales reliance on FPD manufacturing tools leaves it withlower margins than other SPE makers, and we believe mid-term growth potential isrelatively lower too. In the short term, we expect conditions for SPE-relatedbusiness including MHM to remain favorable, including continuing strength in capexby leading Chinese foundries in 2026. Suzune Tamura assumes primary coverage of Advantest, KOKUSAI ELECTRIC andUlvac from this report. Advantest (6857) Risk Reward - Advantest (6857.T)Risk Reward – Advantest (6857.T) Expectations that testers for generative AI will gain traction OVERWEIGHT THESIS ¥30,000PRICE TARGET Earnings are solid for the company, with itsstrong focus on AI device testing. We expectit to achieve high growth in the longer term,driven by the resumption of investments byDRAM manufacturers, centered on HBM,increased in-house production of AIprocessors, and the recovery of demand fortesters in the GPU and consumer electronicssemiconductor markets. The tester market has bottomed out, and we think it could grow as much as the WFE marketas demand for devices with long test times (edge AI, generative AI) increases. We apply a P/Eof 20.0x, average 1yr forward multiple between the last cyclical recovery and peak-out (Aug2019 to May 2022), in line with the multiple for Tokyo Electron. PT is based on F3/28e EPSof ¥1,497.7 (F3/28 being when we expect the next peak in earnings). Consensus Price Target Distribution Risk Reward ThemesNew Data Era:PositiveSecular Growth:Positive View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themeshere ¥30,000 ¥11,100 ¥38,700 BASE CASE BULL CASE BEAR CASE Tester market grows 50% YoY in 2026 Tester market grows 30% YoY in 2026 Tester market grows 5% YoY in 2026 In 2025, the tester market grows by 30%YoY. Demand expands for testers forgenerative AI devices, along with a recoveryin the smartphone market. This leads toincreased capex by OSATs and an expansionin demand for SoC testers. In 2027, double-digit growth leads to a record-high marketsize for testers. We apply P/E of 20.0x toour EPS estimate of ¥1,497.7 for F3/28,which we view as the next earnings peak, forour base case FV of ¥30,000. In 2026, the tester market grows 50% YoY.Demand expands for testers for generativeAI devices, along with a recovery in thesmartphone market and increasedinvestments in new platforms. A sharprecovery in capex by OSAT results inincreased demand for SoC testers. Thetester market grows to a record scale in2026. Bull case FV: ¥38,700 (P/E of 20.0xand F3/28e EPS of ¥1,937.0). In 2026, the tester market grows 5% YoY.Despite expansion in demand for testers forAI devices, growth is lackluster due todeclining market share, slow recovery in thesmartphone market, and the US ban onsemiconductor exports to China. The testermarket only grows 5%, and in 2027, themarket does not recover fully. Bear case FV: ¥11,100 (P/E of 14.0x F3/28eEPS of ¥789.5) Risk Reward – Advantest (6857.T) INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS Recovery in demand for smartphone chips andimprovement in memory market; increasedcertainty in the strong recovery of capex bymajor semiconductor makers; visible growth ofdemand for testers