亚洲经济周报：亚洲：能源出口国的外部平衡顺风

27 March 2026 This week in focus GEM Fixed Income Strategy &EconomicsAsia As the US–Iran conflict enters its fourth week, inflation expectation rises in Asia, whileindustrial and household demand are also facing more constraints. In China, we haverevised up our 2026 CPI and PPI inflation forecasts to 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, andthe higher inflation reduces the likelihood of policy rate cuts. In India, elevated energyand commodity prices are pushing up the near‑term inflation outlook, with around 15.5%of the CPI basket exposed to import price shocks and pass‑through likely to intensify in2H26. In Japan, the strong base pay growth from FY26 Shunto negotiations supports thecase for a BoJ rate hike in April, although real wage gains will remain sensitive to the oilprice trajectory. In Australia, lingering upside risks to inflation also leave the RBA ontrack for a potential rate hike in May. Asia: External balance tailwinds for energy exporters Energy supply has tightened sharply over the pastweeks. While much of Asia could facegreater external balance pressures, energy exporters should see meaningful support,primarily via. terms-of-trade gains. We see external balance tailwinds strongest forAustralia–given its position as a top three global exporter for both LNG and coal -followed by Malaysia, mainly through LNG exports. Indonesia should also see incrementalexternal balance support, driven largely by coal exports, alongside smaller gains fromLNG. Helen QiaoChina & Asia EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)helen.qiao@bofa.com Rahul BajoriaIndia & ASEAN EconomistBofAS India Takayasu KudoJapan EconomistBofAS Japan Week ahead Benson Wu, CFAChina & Korea EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) In the next two weeks, weturn our focus to the monetary policy meetings in India, Koreaand New Zealand. We expect all the three central banks to keep the policy rateunchanged at 5.25%, 2.50% and 2.25%, respectively, amid the volatility in global energyprices. On data front, inJapan, we expect both Japan-style core CPI (ex-fresh food) andBoJ-style core CPI (ex-fresh food and energy) to further slow to +1.7% yoy and +2.3%yoy in Mar, respectively. The main driver of the slowdown will likely be the negative baseeffects of the food prices. Apart from that, the price development will likely be limited inMarch. In Korea, we expect export growth to surge to 50.5% yoy in Mar (vs 29% in Feb)on robust semi demand. We also expect CPI inflation to inch up to 2.4% yoy in Mar (vs2% in Feb) on elevated global energy prices. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, we expect CPIinflation to moderate to 3.3% yoy in Mar (vs 4.8% in Feb). Anna ZhouChina & AsiaEconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Xiaoqing PiGreater China EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Kai Wei AngASEAN EconomistMerrill Lynch (Singapore)kaiwei.ang@bofa.com Nick Stenner, CFAAustralia & NZ EconomistMerrill Lynch (Australia)nick.stenner@bofa.com Ting Him Ho, CFAAsia EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Johnny Liu, CFAAustralia & NZ EconomistMerrill Lynch (Australia) Smriti MehraIndia EconomistBofAS India Yvonne HeChina & Asia EconomistMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)See Team Page for List of Analysts Seeacronymsand abbreviations atthe end of this report This Week in Focus As the US–Iran conflict enters its fourth week, inflation expectation rises in Asia, whileindustrial and household demand are also facing more constraints. In China, we haverevised up our 2026 CPI and PPI inflation forecasts to 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, andthe higher inflation reduces the likelihood of policy rate cuts. In India, elevated energyand commodity prices are pushing up the near‑term inflation outlook, with around 15.5%of the CPI basket exposed to import price shocks and pass‑through likely to intensify in2H26. In Japan, the strong base pay growth from FY26 Shunto negotiations supports thecase for a BoJ rate hike in April, although real wage gains will remain sensitive to the oilprice trajectory. In Australia, lingering upside risks to inflation also leave the RBA ontrack for a potential rate hike in May. China: Higher inflation to lower the chance of policy rate cuts We upgrade projections for 2026 CPI inflation to 0.7% and PPI inflation to 0.3% (from0.1% and−0.7%). The revision reflects three forces: a cyclical upturn in domesticdemand evident in Jan-Feb data; higher projected energy prices due to the Iran conflict;and a rally in metals and electronics supported by structural tailwinds from the AIinvestment cycle. We remove the call for 20bp of rate cuts in 2026, but see room for thePBoC to act if demand momentum falters. India: Import price shock may be mitigated by higher subsidies The surge in energy prices as well as sustained rise in global commodity prices, resultingfrom the ongoing conflict in West Asia, has put shadow on India’s near-term inflationoutlook. We expect the elevated cost pressures to feed through the wholesale prices in1-3 months given strong linkages between the two. Meanwhile, we e