爱马仕：估值已反映‘法拉利式重置’

Hermès: Valuations already discount a 'Ferrari reset' Hermès is seemingly experiencing fading momentum:The secondary market price ofHermès iconic products has normalized post a 2022 peak, in line with other peer icons (e.g.the Rolex Daytona - see Hermès: The Secondhand Pricing Tracker - Mar'26). In-store trafficfrom our “mega-transect” is receding in China at -25% – in contrast with direct peers:Chanel +130%, Dior +139% (see Global Luxury Goods Mega-transect: Strong LNY 2026foot traffic). 1Q26E expectations have reduced to MSD positive in the past week. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com There could be several different explanations why this is the case – from the mildestto the most severe:(A) Hermès may simply be short of stock and may prefer to start theyear at a more subdued pace in 1Q, rather than end the year on a low in 4Q; (B) Hermèsmay be overshadowed by the many brands – including direct peers – that have broughtnew creative directors and new ideas to the market in 2H25 (see Global Luxury Goods:The Handbag Price & Mix Barometer - Chanel's readacross to Hermès); (C) Hermès may beresisting better than most to an overall global demand deterioration but may not be doingthis forever – and may be eventually succumbing to it; (D) Hermès may be experiencing astrain of its “growth formula” – eventually succumbing to a Ferrari-like reset.Our diagnosisis leaning to the benign,with a temporary eclipse largely due to a combination ofconsumer distraction, more difficult comps, and – possibly – tactical use of inventory. Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Valuations are already discounting a ‘Ferrari reset’.Both Hermès and Ferrariestablished a post-pandemic valuation peak in Feb’25 (at 59x and 53x NTM P/E). Both havenow fallen ~25 turns to 33x and 29x, but Hermès is now trading >1.4 s.d. below its 10Yaverage P/E, Ferrari only 1 s.d. below. We see two major structural differences when comparing Hermès and Ferrari: Hermès still has a significant “untapped pricing reservoir” (see Global Luxury Goods:The Untapped Price Increase Reservoir) relative to Ferrari – which potentially pushedvolumes and pricing, particularly for newer hybrid models such as the SF90 and 296GTB/S, aggressively in recent years (ultimately experiencing stress in resale values).Contrary to Ferrari and potential structural technology disruption from electric vehicles andautonomous driving, Hermès seems immune from category disruption altogether. We are equally not convinced of an “end of luxury” thesis– which could justify beingnegative on the most structurally appealing name in the sector: For sure, the Chinese arefacing a real estate crisis, which takes years to resolve – but last time we checked, Chinesedemand was incrementally reviving, albeit on fragile consumer feelgood (see GlobalLuxury Goods: Chinese demand dynamics). Further wealth and income polarization couldstress the established mega-brand luxury goods growth formula – but Hermès should beequipped better than most soft luxury peers to navigate this new environment It is difficult nevertheless to be positive on Hermès short-term:Many long-onlyinvestors would be keen to buy Hermès on the cheap, but they have been sitting on thesidelines waiting for clearer signs of a global demand revival – the ‘Third Gulf War’ hasmade them even more cautious. Short-term investors have been dominating the shareprice action of luxury good, but a weak start to 2026 would only reinforce their approach ofshorting Hermès while overexposing to self-help stories – primarily LVMH and Kering. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS It is difficult to be positive on Hermès in the short-term:Many long-only investors would be keen to buy Hermès on thecheap, but they have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for clearer signs of a global demand revival – the ‘Third Gulf War’ hasmade them even more cautious. Short-term investors have been dominating the share price action of luxury good, but a weakstart to 2026 would only reinforce their approach of shorting Hermès while overexposing to self-help stories – primarily LVMHand Kering. We note that a protracted ‘Third Gulf War’ scenario has yet to be factored into sell-side financial forecasts.We updateour forecasts to account for recent company commentary and FX. We now see Group organic growth at +8.1% in 1Q26E (vs.VisibleAlpha consensus estimates at +7.9%), with the quarter’s growth weighed down by France and the Middle East. We adjust our EBIT% forecasts to incorporate reported figures provided in Hermès’ annual report, trim our 1H26E EBIT%forecasts to account for lower sales in the Middle East, but leave our forecasts for the rest of FY26E largely unchanged - wedefer any updates to forecasts for now, given persistent un