信达生物：全球竞争力产品推动增长加速——2025年下半年模型更新（跑赢大盘）

Rebecca Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2656rebecca.liang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Innovent: supercharged growth from globally competitiveproducts - post 2H25 model update (Outperform) An increasingly global pipeline:we include new assets in the model to reflect Innovent’spipeline growth - especially those with global sales potential. For IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2) wedialed up global ex-China sales from $3.2 to $3.8 Bn in 2035E. Then there are3 newlyadded molecules with net $4 Bn global peak sales expected: 1)part of the Takedadeal - IBI343(CLDN18.2, for gastric and pancreatic cancers) ex-China peak sales$0.6Bn. 2)Ollin deal(NewCo with Innovent’s 10% equity investment) -IBI324(Ang2/VEGF forwet age-related macular degeneration / diabetic macular edema, ophthamology)$2.4 Bn.3)IBI3003(BCMA/CD3/GPRC5D T-cell engager, for multiple myeloma), which is not yetlicensed and Innovent is driving the global trials directly, and we assume to be outlicensed atsome point,$1 Bn. We also added the upfront and milestones expected from the Lilly dealafter PoS adjustment.In total, we expect CNY2.4 Bn license income from these deals in2026E, and grow rapidly to CNY10.4 Bn in 2033E (OLD: 8.5Bn). Towards large pharma scale and profitability:we expect product sales to keep up atthe earlier pace and grow at a CAGR of 27% from 2025 to 2028E, and maintain high-teensgrowth after to reach CNY35 Bn in 2030E. Afteradjusting down mazdutide sales slightlyfrom CNY3 Bn to 2.2 Bn in 2026E, and from 6 Bn to 5.4 Bn in 2027E, top-line growthto CNY20 Bn by 2027E (target given by Innovent) was not affected as growth from otherrecently launched products offset the gap. In the longer term, products mentioned aboveand other early stage pipeline - such as the novel ADCs, siRNA (AGT), and oral GLP-1s driveproduct sales growth to CNY66 Bn in 2035E. On cost ratios, we increased near-termSG&A%to reflect the costs necessary to supportmultiple new launches (56%in 2026E as of product sales). Similarly,R&Dwent up as percompany guidance on incremental overseas trials, totaling atCNY4 Bn in 2026Eand 25%of product sales. We keep long-term projections at 37% SG&A and 18% R&D respectively.OPM 32% in 2030E and 37% in 2033E. (Cont. on the next page) Investment Implications We rate Innovent Outperform with PT of HK$120. DETAILS Other model updates: 1) DCF valuation: After adjusting CAPEX, excess cash, and others we arrive at a TP of HK$119; 2) P/E-based valuation: We are projecting a more conservative scenario where 2030E terminal P/E is changed from 30x to 20x, whichgives a TP of HK$113; 3) Peak sales multiples: We included global peak sales of IBI324 and IBI3003, arriving at a TP of HK$127.Overall TP HK$120, reiterate Outperform. AN INCREASINGLY GLOBAL PIPELINE Ph3 on-going or planned in 2026: IBI363 (PD-1/IL-2), IBI343 (CLDN18.2 ADC), IBI324 (Ang-2/VEGF-A,new), andIBI3003 (BCMA/CD3/GPRC5D,new) Besides 363 (BernE global $3.8 Bn in 2035E) and 343 (BernE $0.6 Bn in 2035E), we added global revenue of two newmolecules. IBI324(out-licensed to Ollin): lower molecular weight (1/3 of Vabysmo) increases retinal penetration. H2H ph1b againstVabysmo showed superior data: edema clearance - nearly 90% of IBI324-treated patients achieved absence of DME at Week12, compared to 57% of Vabysmo patients. greater BCVA improvements in nAMD and DME patients at week 20. BenchmarkVabysmo and we expect CNY1.5 Bn peak sales in China and US$2.4 Bn globally. IBI3003(Innovent driving global trials directly): is the world’s second fastest trispecific TCE in clinical development followingJNJ’s ramantamig (Exhibit 15). Based on the readouts disclosed at 2025 ASH, IBI3003 has shown BIC potential (Exhibit 16),particularly in more challenging patient populations, including those with extramedullary disease (EMD) and prior anti-BCMA/GPRC5D treated patients. Besides, Innovent is pursuing broad indications for IBI3003 spanning 2L-4L MM and 1L transplant-(in) eligible populations, with the ambition to establish IBI3003 as a future new SoC in MM. China peak sales CNY0.8 Bn, globalsales $1 Bn. License income projection update:Based on company guidance and company’s booking arrangements, we are projectingTakeda deal and LLY deal amortization of upfront payments over 5 years. We assume milestones and royalties of existing dealswill roll in from 2027E. We also projected BD income for IBI3003 due to potential deal out-licensing. Beside known assets, wemade an assumption on new deals making (one a year), baking in $80 Mn upfront per deal and TDV at $1 Bn, with 10% royalties. Early stage: multiple new ADCs, oral GLP-1s (daily and weekly), and monthly PCSK9-GGG APC Innovent is advancing a deep early-stage pipeline with9 assets in phase ½ and 10 more at FIH/IND stage, each carryingmeaningful global revenue potential. Among these, several programs stand out for their FIC or BIC profiles.IBI3020, aCEACAM5-targeting dual-payload ADC, is positioned to become thefirst dual-payload ADC globally. In metabolic disease