中国新蛋白行业的宏观潜在影响

The Macroeconomic&Environmental Impact ofChina'sAlternativeProteinSector. 中国农业大学全球食物经济与政策研究院谷孚咨询 粮食安全是国家安全的基石。当前，全球粮食安全形势日趋严峻，可持续发展理念已深度融入社会经济发展肌理。在此背景下，以植物基蛋白、细胞培养蛋白、发酵蛋白等为代表的新蛋白产业，作为传统畜牧体系的重要补充，凭借其独特优势与巨大发展潜力，正遂步成为推动全球农业食品领域变革的关键力量。 摘要 Food security is the cornerstone of national security. Currently, the global fooddevelopmenthasbeendeeplyintegrated into the fabric of socio-economicdevelopment. In this context, the alternative protein industry, represented byplant-based proteins,cell-cultured proteins,and fermentation proteins,servesas an essential complement to traditional livestock systems. With its uniqueadvantages and enormous development potential, it is gradually becoming a keyforcedriving transformation in the global agricultural and food sectors. 新蛋白产业的崛起与中国粮食安全保障、“大食物观”实践及新质生产力培育紧密相连，高度契合国家战略方向。中国作为农业大国，人口基数庞大，蛋白质需求总量居高不下。现阶段，传统蛋白质生产模式正面临包括水土资源紧张、气候变化加剧、部分高蛋白农产品（如大豆）对外依存度较高等多重制约，这些因素对中国国家粮食安全构成潜在风险。新蛋白产业的兴起，为突破这些困境提供了全新路径。通过植物、微生物及细胞层面的先进技术生产蛋白质，可有效降低对传统畜牧业和种植业的依赖，拓宽蛋白质供给渠道，从而保障国内蛋白质供应的稳定与安全。 The rise of the alternative protein industry is closely linked to China's food security assurance, thepractice of the"Greater Food Approach', and the cultivation of"new,quality productive forces', whichbase, china maintains a persistently high total protein demand. Currently, traditional proteinproduction models face multiple constraints, including water and soil resource scarcity, intensifying(such as soybeans). These factors pose potential risks to China's national food security. Theemergence of the alternative protein industry provides a new pathway to break through theseconstraints. By producing proteins through advanced technologies at the plant, microbial, andcellular levels, it can effectively reduce dependence on traditional livestock and crop farming.broaden protein supply channels, and thus ensure a stable and secure domestic protein supply. 中国发展新蛋白产业具备了坚实基础：中国拥有具有国际竞争力的豆制品加工能力和豆类蛋白完全提取能力，已构建起现代化的植物蛋白生产技术体系；在合成生物学、生物制造等核心领域积累了显著技术优势，部分关键技术指标已达到国际先进水平；中国拥有全球最大的蛋白消费市场，动物蛋白进口依赖度较高，为新蛋白替代提供了广阔空间；政策支持力度空前，从国家“十四五”规划、生物经济战略到地方产业集群计划，均将其列为战略性新兴产业；同时，相关中央部委和地方政府安排专项资金支持新蛋白的研究与产业化示范。 China has established a solid foundation for developing the alternative protein industry: Chinapossesses internationally competitive soy product processing capabilities and complete soy proteinextraction capabilities, having built a modern plant protein production technology system; significantechnological accumulation in core fields such as synthetic biology and biomanufacturing, with somkey technical indicators reaching international advanced levels; the world's largest proteinconsumption market, with high dependence on animal protein imports providing broad space foralternative protein substitution; unprecedented policy support, from the national "14th Five-YearPlan" and bioeconomy strategy to local industrial cluster plans, allisting it as a strategic emergingindustry; meanwhile, relevant central ministries and local governments have allocated special fundsto support alternative protein research and industrialization demonstrations. The Macroeconomic&Environmental ImpactofChina's Alternative Protein Sector 】中国蛋白质供需格局发生了结构性转变。2000-2023年，动物性食品产量显著提升，蛋白质供给总量呈现跨超式增长。与此同时，蛋白质需求总量急速扩大，且需求结构发生根本性逆转，饲用蛋白质成为第一大需求。国内蛋白质消费增速持续超过国内生产增速，进口依赖度从4%飘升至31%。预计到2035年，中国人均蛋白质需求仍会持续增长，而蛋白质消费总量和产量均保持稳中路增态势，蛋白质自给率将小幅回升、但缺口依然明显。 基于中国发展新蛋白产业的上述坚实基础与现实需求，本研究系统梳理了新蛋白产业的发展现状，预测了未来中国食物消费与蛋白质供需趋势，模拟了新蛋白替代传统蛋白对环境的潜在影响，并从宏观经济层面评估新蛋白产业发展的潜力。主要发现如右： China's proteinsupply-demand pattern has undergone structural transformation3uwous Aiddns uraid ees em qutigrubs pasearu uaganpoid poog [ewue zozeafroggowhMahilealpraeindemndenddrapidy,andthe dmandsuctuundenwent fundamental reversal, with feed protein becoming the primary dproteinumpngwhcitentyededdmesticprouctiongowh,withimtdependence soaring from 4% to 31%. It is projected that by 2035, China's pdemand will continue to grow, while total protein consumption and producBuuewasdenquaAs sae uan-as uaod psaaouos peevident 全球新蛋白产业已初步形成以植物基蛋白加工、微生物发酵和动物细胞培养三大技术路径的产业格局。产业发展的关键在于技术突破、资本投入和政策支持，目前三大技术路径将以“基础研究-技术转化-工业化生产”的路径进行演化产成本较高、消费者接受度有限、监管体系与标准制定缺位、产业生态不健全的据战。 the global alternative protein industry has initially formed an industrial landscape with three major technolprocessing, microbial fermentation, and animal cell cultivation, The key to industrial development lies in tectransfer industrial production';capital llcationgeneraly shws characterstics f'extendingfram end products to kinvestment, and policy support.Cumently, the thee major technological pathways will evolive along the pathhigh production costs, limited consumer acceptance, gaps in regulatory systems and standard setting, and Based on the solidfoundation andpractical needs forChina'sdevelopment ofthe alternativeprotein industrymentioned above,this studysystematicallyreviews the currentdevelopmentstatus of thealternative proteinindustry, predictsfuture trends inChina's foodconsumption andprotein supply-demand, simulatesthe potentialenviro