宏观综述：油和水

Oil & water The Macro Wrap is your weekly, need-to-know guide to ourkey macro views, implications for markets and trendingresearch. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US Read the Research: Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US •QatarEnergy's LNG facilities extensively damaged: assessing creditbuffers•Korea & Taiwan: Middle East disruption also exposes a tail risk to semiconductors•Private credit - risks to monitor, but this is not 2008•Read our latestBarclays Live hub,Middle East Escalation. Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK Highlighted Events: •This Thursday, join Ajay Rajadhyaksha & Barclays colleagues to discuss our latest globalmacro views and key market themes heading into the second quarter of 2026•On this week’s Thursday Macro call, we will look at Private Credit, through a macro lens•Please join Zornitsa Todorova as she hosts Michael Fleming, Head of Capital Markets at theFederal Reserve Bank of New York, and Professor DarrellDuffieof Stanford University for apanel discussion on US Treasury market liquidity, as technology and regulation make themarket more equity-like. Barclays Research Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Trending Views. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Barclays Economic Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5What are our views across asset classes?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Looking ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Key forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Global Events & Conferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Barclays Research Highlights QatarEnergy's LNG facilities extensively damaged: assessing creditbuffers Key points: 1) RasLaffandamage extends “duration” risk; 2) Hormuz feedstock disruption(naphtha/LPG)liftsUS polymer clearing prices; 3) energy snowball scenarios for consumer/retail; 4) outlook is weakening; 5) updated ticker thoughts. Korea & Taiwan: Middle East disruption also exposes a tail risk to semiconductors With the Middle East conflict persisting, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz also exposes thevulnerability of the Korean and Taiwanese economies, particularly for semiconductors. Wereassess the tail risks from oil and gas and critical minerals for semiconductors. Public Policy: Fed collision course The US District Court in DC has quashed DOJ subpoenas to the Fed. The DOJ said it will appealthe decision. Chair Powell subsequently said he is not leaving. We unpack significantimplications for the Fed's leadership succession. Public Policy: What could end the Iran war? We identify five potential catalysts for the US.• Military objectives are achieved•Congressional constraints: Funding and/or War Powers Act•Mounting US casualties likely weakens public support•If gas prices hit $5 per gallon national average•Trump pivots, declares victory, and moves on US Credit Strategy: BDCs: De-attached from CLO reality With BDC unsecureds 80bp wider YTD, we revisit relative value to CLOs. Attachment pointanalysis shows single-As are the best comp. CLOs' MVOC metrics are informative for how BDCunsecureds should move, and we find that BDCs have underperformed BSL CLO single-As byabout 50bp in the recentselloff. European Equity and Credit Strategy: Private credit - risks to monitor, but this is not2008 EU equities are little exposed to private credit risk, though market opacity & AI disruption maykeep investors wary. And while a maturing credit cycle brings fragilities and favours more of aquality tilt, corporate fundamentals are solid. Banks depend on oil near term, but risk-rewardwould appear better post dip. Trending Views •Sometimes a cursory glance at research titles tells the story – ‘Make or break’, ‘On edge’,‘Dire straits’, ‘A building wall of worry’, ‘The future ain't what it used to be’, ‘Achilles tear’: aclear reflection of last week •The FOMC held rates and noted that the economic outlook remained elevated anduncertain. We found the FOMC meeting to be less hawkish than the market. We continue torecommend longs in 5y real yields and 5y5y breakevens. Funding markets remain placidand industrial production rose another 0.2% m/m: the 4thconsecutive monthly increase. •Euriborcontinue to slide on rising energy prices. The ECB's policy message was neutral,but its scenario analysis underscores the inflation asymmetry. We now expect 25bp ECBhikes in April and June as the Middle East energy shock requires agile risk-management.Given the tightening of the oil market, and assuming operations in the Midd