华尔街银行在战争期间推迟呼吁中国降息

Wall Street Banks Push Back Calls forChina Rate Cuts During War 华尔街银⾏在战争期间推迟呼吁中国降息 ByBloomberg News彭博社新闻 March 23, 2026 at 12:41 PM GMT+8 Save保存 Takeawaysby Bloomberg AI 彭博AI的要点 Some of the biggest US banks raised their projections forChina’s inflation this year and pushed back predictions forits next interest-rate cut, as the escalating conflict in Iransends oil prices higher. ⼀些最⼤的美国银⾏上调了对今年中国通胀的预测，并推迟了对下⼀次降息的预期，因为伊朗冲突升级推动油价⾛⾼。 The spike in energy costs is making the odds of monetaryeasing much lower in the months ahead, with economists atBofA removing their call for two rate decreases this year. 能源成本的飙升使未来⼏个⽉货币宽松的可能性⼤幅降低，BofA的经济学家已取消了他们对今年两次降息的判断。 Economists predict higher costs won’t easily reach the retailand services sectors, with a 1% increase in the producer-price index translating into only around 5 basis points ofcore consumer inflation. 经济学家预测，更⾼的成本不太可能轻易传导到零售和服务⾏业，⽣产者物价指数上升1%仅会转化为核⼼消费者通胀约5个基点。 Some of the biggest US banks raised theirprojectionsforChina’s inflation this year and pushed back predictions forits next interest-rate cut, as the escalating conflict in Iransends oil prices higher. ⼀些最⼤的美国银⾏上调了对今年中国通胀的预测，并推迟了对下⼀次降息的预期，因为伊朗冲突升级推动油价⾛⾼。 Bank of America Corp. joined other Wall Street giants likeCitigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in expecting afaster increase in consumer andproducer pricesthis yearthan predicted previously, according to areportpublished Monday. 美国银⾏公司(Bank of America Corp.)与花旗集团(CitigroupInc.)和⾼盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等华尔街巨头⼀道，在周⼀发布的⼀份报告中表⽰，预计今年消费者和⽣产者价格将⽐先前预测更快上升。 The spike in energy costs is also making the odds ofmonetary easingmuch lower in the months ahead, witheconomists at BofA removing their call for two ratedecreases totaling 20 basis points this year. Citi, whichearlier expected cuts to resume next quarter, now predictsthe People’s Bank of China will deliver a single 10-basis-point reduction in the second half of the year. 能源成本的飙升也使未来数⽉货币宽松的可能性⼤幅降低，BofA的经济学家已取消了今年累计降息20个基点、分两次实施的预测。花旗此前预计降息将在下季度恢复，现在预测中国⼈民银⾏将在下半年实施⼀次10个基点的降息。 中国通胀前景上调 “We see policy moving toward a wait-and-see stance,” BofA’seconomists said in the report. There’s “less need to easeimmediately, but greater capacity to respond quickly anddecisively if external or domestic demand weakensunexpectedly or financial conditions tighten.” “我们认为政策正在转向观望⽴场，”BofA的经济学家在报告中表⽰。“⽬前‘⽆需⽴即放松政策’，但若外部或国内需求意外⾛弱或⾦融条件收紧，则‘有更⼤的能⼒迅速且果断地作出反应’。” The emerging consensus among economists mirrorsexpectations in themarket, as traders pare back bets forfurther monetary easing. Theyieldon China’s 30-yeargovernment bond rose to an 18-month high last week. 经济学家之间逐渐形成的共识反映了市场预期，交易员们已缩减对进⼀步货币宽松的押注。中国30年期国债收益率上周升⾄18个⽉⾼点。 Investors, economists and policymakers worldwide are fastadjustingto the new reality of more expensive energy, as attacks in the Gulf send oil costs soaring and threaten todisrupt supply routes more broadly. 全球的投资者、经济学家和政策制定者正在迅速适应能源更昂贵这⼀新现实——随着海湾地区的袭击导致油价飙升并威胁更⼴泛地扰乱供应通道。 Officials at the US Federal Reserve kept borrowing costs onhold last week while acknowledging added uncertaintycreated by the war in the Middle East. The Bank of Englandsaid on Thursday it “stands ready” to act to prevent inflationfrom accelerating. 美国联邦储备委员会的官员上周维持借贷成本不变，同时承认中东战争带来的不确定性增加。英格兰银⾏周四表⽰其“已准备好”采取⾏动以防⽌通胀加速。 Traders have also started to boost bets on rate hikes bycentral banks from theeurozonetoAustralia. 交易员也开始增加对从欧元区到澳⼤利亚等地央⾏加息的押注。 Read More About China:阅读更多关于中国的内容： China’s Record Deflation Finds Dangerous Cure in Oil Shock中国创纪录的通货紧缩在⽯油冲击中找到危险疗法China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 as Old Model Falters⾃1991年以来中国设定的最低增⻓⽬标，旧模式失灵China Starts Year With Fastest Rise in Spending Since 2022中国以⾃2022年以来最快的⽀出增⻓开年 China Shuns Bold Stimulus in Move From Trump-Induced CrisisMode 中国放弃激进刺激，从特朗普引发的危机模式中转变 In China, the central bank has increasingly been on thesidelines when it comes to managing an economy hamperedby weak demand and deep-seated imbalances, with fiscalstimulus expected to do most of the heavy lifting. The PBOCdelivered just one 10-basis-point reduction to the policy ratein 2025 — far less than many had expected. 在中国，当涉及到管理⼀个受需求疲软和深层次失衡困扰的经济体时，央⾏在政策操作上越来越处于旁观者⾓⾊，财政刺激预计将承担⼤部分重任。⼈民银⾏在2025年仅对政策利率进⾏了⼀个10个基点的降幅——远低于许多⼈的预期。 Even before the hostilities in the Middle East, policymakershave beentelegraphinga cautious approach to monetaryeasing. China’s top leadership this month set its mostmodest growth target for the economy since 1991. 即便在中东冲突之前，政策制定者也⼀直在传达对货币宽松持谨慎态度的信号。中国最⾼领导层本⽉为经济设定了⾃1991年以来最为温和的增长⽬标。 But the possible timing of future rate cuts is now even lesscertain. 但未来降息的可能时点现在更加不确定。 Adding to higher oil prices, a global rally in metalssupported by investments linked to artificial intelligence — as well as a modestrecoveryin consumer and businessdemand at home — are among factors cited by economistswho see a bigger rebound in prices ahead. China will likelyexit a record streak of economy-wide deflation as soon asthis month, as soaring oil costs push up expenses for theindustrial sect