中国GDP前景风险平衡

Balanced risks to GDP outlook China's better-than-expected Jan-Feb data point to a mildrecovery at the start of the year, as government's front-loadedstimulus to support domestic demand and IP was boosted byexports amid the AI spending boom. This, alongside withreduced vulnerability to energy shocks may delay policyeasing. Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Yingke Zhou+852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong UPDATE This publication is an update to 'China: Balanced risks to GDP outlook', originallypublished on 16 Mar 2026 at 15:04 SGT. Replaced Figure 2 about high-tech product output. Ying Zhang+852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong China’s Jan-Feb data suggest the economy performed better than expected at the start of theyear, thanks to the global AI/tech boom, which drove a 22%y/y surge in exports and faster IPgrowth, the government’s front-loading consumption subsidy which resulted in improving retailsales in spite of plunging auto purchase, and the government's push to kick-start new projectswith faster LG bond issuances boosting infrastructure investment growth, which contributed tothe end of the six-month contraction in FAI growth. Meanwhile, despite improvement, we noteretail sales and FAI remained quitesoftby historical standards. Property market remained deepin contraction, with double-digit decline in new home sales, property investment, and newstarts (China: Positive property news, still harsh reality, 23 February 2026).Officialdata showthe labour market deteriorated with rising unemployment rates (up 0.2pp to 5.3% in Jan-Feb). Looking ahead, we believe risks to our GDP growth forecast of 4% for 2026 are roughly balanced.On one hand, the much stronger-than-expected exports growth, through higher IP growth,poses an upside risk of 0.2-0.5pp to our GDP forecast. For context, net exports added 1.6pp, orover 1/3 to headline GDP growth of 5% in 2025. On the other hand, the ongoing Middle-Eastconflict points to stagflation risks, though we think the impact could be milder for China givenits diversified energy mix with continued dominance of coal, rapid expansion of renewableenergy, and electrification with more domestic power plants (China Outlook: Less vulnerable, 13March 2026). We estimate that an oil shock could reduce China's growth by around 0.2pp if oilprices stay at USD100/bbl in 2026. We note some Chinese refiners have begun cutting output,while petrochemical prices have risen noticeably in recent weeks. We see balanced risks to our consumption forecast. While headline retail sales showed signs of aturnaround, we think a sustained consumption recovery remains challenging given 1)worsening labor market, 2) smaller scale of pro-consumption trade-in subsidies (down 20% toCNY250bn in 2026), and 3) negative wealtheffectlinked to continued decline in home pricesthough the pace has slowed. Overall, we think the government lowering its 2026 growth targetto 4.5-5% range is a deliberate and realistic reset with actual growth likely at the lower end ofthe range (China: NPC – lower growth target, tighter fiscal stance, 5 March 2026). Jan-Feb activity data came in better than expected •On the positive side, the stronger IP growth of 6.3% y/y in Jan-Feb could lend some supportto Q1 GDP growth, as China's GDP reports are production-based, and IP data could be morerelevant forofficialGDP calculations than demand indicators. For context, China achieved itsGDP growth target of 5% in both 2024 and 2025 thanks to robust IP and export growth. Thebreakdown showed the stronger IP growth again led by high tech products (Figure 1), such asindustrial robots, semiconductors and smart phones, while traditional sectors (steel, coal)and sectors hit by the anti-involution campaign (solar panels and EV) remained in thecontraction territory (Figure 2). •Retail sales growth staged a recovery for the first time since May 2025, rising to 2.8% y/y inJan-Feb from 0.9% in Dec and 1.7% in Q4. The recovery was led by catering, householdappliances, furniture, and jewellery, benefiting from consumption subsidies, bettersecondary market home sales and surging gold prices (Figure 4 and Figure 5). However, autosales (~10% of retail sales) contracted for thefifthstraight month of -7.3% in Jan-Feb,consistent with our conversation with industry experts on downbeat domestic auto salesvolume in 2026. •Infrastructure investment growth rebounded visibly, rising to c.10% y/y in Jan-Febaftersixstraight months of contraction in H2 2025 (Figure 7). Such improvement, in our view,reflected the authorities'effortsto accelerate the local government special bond issuance(LGSB, Figure 8) to kick-start the new projects earlier in 2026 to support growth, especiallygiven 2026 is the first year of 15FYP (2026-30). Meanwhile, it is encouraging to see thatmanufacturing investment growth returned to positive territory for the first time sincemid-2025. We will watch the su