铝、水电能源与中东｜博利登资本 * 市场日｜铁矿石：估值分析

IndustryMetals & Mining Aluminium, Hydro & Middle East.Boliden CMD. Iron Ore. Valuations Liam Fitzpatrick India Steel & Mining and energy storage expert calls Research Analyst+44-20-754-13233 The Metals & Mining team has the pleasure of inviting you to a series of virtualmeetings with the senior management ofHindalco, ArcelorMittal/NS IndiaandJSW Steel, to discuss key trends in the steel, aluminium, and copper sectors. Theformat will be virtual ~45-minute fireside discussions with an opportunity for Q&A.Please click here to register for the calls. Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 Cody Hayden Research Analyst+44-20-754-13230 Our US colleagues are hosting an expert call onbattery energy storage systems('BESS') with Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Benchmark Minerals onThursday,19 March at 2pm UK/3pm CET/10am ET. Click here to register. Middle East conflict pushes aluminium prices higher; Qatalum pauses shutdownThe conflict in the Middle East (ME) is having a significant impact on the aluminium market, given the region is a meaningful producer (~6.7 mt or ~23% of ex-Chinasupply). With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, fears of a global aluminiumsupply squeeze are building, and this has caused prices to rise above ~$3,500/t withEuropean ingot premiums up ~18%.Hydro(Buy) announced on Thursday that it ishalting further production curtailment at Qatalum after its gas supplier confirmedthat it will maintain supply at reduced levels. The company expects to operate at~60% capacity and is working to mitigate supply chain disruptions. A key questionis how much alumina and other raw material inventories smelters have, asproduction in the region could face step downs if the situation does not improve.Underlying EBITDA contribution from Qatalum in 2025 was NOK 1.3bn or ~5% ofgroup EBITDA, so at reduced production levels we expect a ~2% annualised impactto EBITDA. However, per Hydro's sensitivities, every $100/t move in aluminiumadds NOK 1.5bn to EBITDA, so the ~$400/t move up in LME and ~$100/t inpremiums has more than offset Qatalum. BOL (Buy): virtual CMD on Wednesday, 18 March BOLis hosting a virtual CMD on18 March at 8:30am UK/9:30am CET(a link to theevent is available here). Our focus will be on: (1) updated project and capexguidance, including the potential approval of the ~SEK 2bn cement project and thephased expansion at the Garpenberg zinc mine; and (2) operational updates,including on the expansion project at Odda (from 200 to 350 ktpa of refined zinc),the Ronnskar tankhouse rebuild and at Somincor, where production guidance maybe revised following heavy rains during January. Depending on the pace of project 15 March 2026Metals & MiningMetals & Mining approvals, there could be some upside risk to current 2026 capex guidance of SEK15bn (potentially up to SEK 16bn). Week ahead A number of datapoints are expected over the course of next week, including Perucopper production for January and the IAI's regional production for February. Chinarefined copper output, NBS steel production, property investment and retail salesdata (all January and February combined) is also expected. Data & news flow Iron oreprices have lifted from recent lows of $97/t to $107/t, partly driven bydisruptions from the Middle East, but also due to news reports thatCMRGmaypotentially expand restrictions onBHPproducts. We are entering a period whenproduction should seasonally lift in China and given steel mills are sitting on low ironore inventories, additional restrictions could tighten supply in the near term.RIOisoffering aluminium to Japanese buyers at a $350/t premium for Q2 deliveries, itshighest since 2015.FMannounced the sale of the Çayeli mine for $340m with thetransaction expected to close by Q3.Chile’s January copper outputwas 410 kt,down 24% MoM and down 3% YoY. China’s January and Februaryunwroughtaluminium and semis exports 971 kt,up 13% YoY.Copper concentrate imports4,930 kt, up 5% YoY.Iron ore imports 210 mt, up 10% YoY.Net steel product(finished steel) exports 14.8 mt, down 7% YoY.Finished steel exports 15.6 mt,down 8% YoY.Coal imports (including lignite) 77.2 mt, up 2% YoY. China’sBFcapacity utilisation rate for the week ending 5 March stood at 85.3%, down 2.2ppts WoW.Traders’steel inventories up 8% WoW. Steel margins decreased WoW,and both HRC mill margins and rebar mill margins remain negative. China’sdomestic steel scrap price was up 2% WoW.Iron ore port inventories flat WoW(up17% YoY). China’spower generation indexis up 4% WoW. Copper: Chinacopperconcentrate spot TC -US$56.1/ton 6 March, reaching a new all-time low. TheCOMEX copper premium to LME is -1%, while premiums in China decreased 11%WoW to $42/t. Chinabase metal inventories:copper, aluminium and zincinventories increased by 6%, 3% and 3% respectively WoW. Commodity price & FX trends (Fig 9-16) Base metals have broadly increased over the past week. Aluminium (+8%)increased due to supply disruptions in the ME, followed by n