净零2050：将泰国的愿景转化为行动

Net Zero 2050: Thailand's Ambitious New Milestone How Thailand’s Net Zero Target ComparesGlobally? Key Factors Shaping Thailand’s Path to Net Zero Who Faces Disruption or Gains from Net Zero? Krungsri Research View: How Can ThailandAchieve Net Zero?19 References21 Unlessexplicitly stated otherwise,this publication and all material therein isunder the copyright ofKrungsri Research. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.This report draws on a wide range of well-established andtrustworthysources,but Krungsri Research can make no guarantee of theabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this report or the data contained therein may be put.Theinformation,opinions,and judgements expressed in this report are those ofKrungsri Research, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions of Krungsri Research as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive Summary Thailand has pledged a new Net Zero target for 2050, bringing the deadline forward by 15 years from itsprevious commitment, and aims to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by-47% by 2035compared to 2019 levels. This compels every sector of the economy to accelerate its transition toward alow-carbon economy. The energy and transport sectors, as the country's largest sources of GHG emissions,must urgently shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, industrial sectors such ascement, steel, and chemicals will face regulatory pressures from both domestic and internationalmeasures, requiring them to restructure production processes toward low-carbon products to remaincompetitive. To achieve this target, the government should accelerate progress on key legislation andpolicies, including the Climate Change Act, carbon pricing mechanisms, and incentives for green industryinvestment, while strengthening international cooperation on technology and financing. At the same time,businesses must urgently measure and manage their carbon footprints, set corporate Net Zero targets,and seize opportunities in sustainable businesses that can deliver long-term growth. Prapan Leenoi Analystprapan.leenoi@krungsri.com Net Zero 2050: Thailand's AmbitiousNew Milestone At the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP30) in November 2025,Thailand announced a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target for 2050(Net Zero 2050), bringing the timeline forward by 15 years from its previous commitment of 2065 (NetZero 2065).This pledge aligns with global efforts to limit the rise in average global temperatures to nomore than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (the 1.5°C pathway), as set out in the Paris Agreement in 2015. The Net Zero 2050 target forms part of Thailand's latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC),known as NDC 3.0,which provides the framework for reducing GHG emissions during the period 2031–2035, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the ParisAgreement mechanisms.The targets set in NDC 3.0 are significantly more ambitious than in previousNDCs(Figure 1), with the following key elements: Reduce net GHG emissions by-47% by 2035compared to 2019 levels—meaning Thailand aims tolimit net GHG emissions to no more than 152 milliontonnesof CO2equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2035,nearly half the 287 MtCO2e recorded in 2019 (Figure 2). By 2050, Thailand must reach net-zero GHGemissions, with emissions from all sectors approximately equal to removals from land use, land-usechange, and forestry (LULUCF). Split the GHG reduction target into (1) domestic action(unconditional target), accounting for 70%of the target,and (2) international support(conditional target), for the remaining 30%. Cover 5 sectors:energy (including transport), industrial processes and product use (IPPU),agriculture, waste, and land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). This article analyzes the enabling factors and barriers to achieving Thailand's new Net Zero target, assesseswhich industries are likely to be most affected or to benefit from the transition to Net Zero, and ultimatelyoffers a perspective on how Thailand can reach its Net Zero goal. How Thailand’s Net Zero TargetCompares Globally? Currently, more than 150 countries have announced Net Zero targets or related environmental goalssuch as carbon neutrality, carbon negativity, and climate neutrality. Over 130 countries have set a 2050target, including EU member states, Japan, Singapore, and Vietnam,