宁德时代：能源颠覆时代的赢家

Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Outperform Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target CATL: A winner in the age of energy disruption The LT consequences of energy disruption in the Middle East is an acceleration of theelectrification megatrend. This is positive for CATL, the world's leading battery maker. CATL’s revenue is expected to grow 40% to RMB595bn in 2026, supported by32% battery sales volume growth.Despite a slowdown in China’s EV market, CATL hasmaintained solid y-o-y EV battery installation growth of 25-30% in recent months. Thepotential upside should come from 1) Global EV battery demand (+6% y-o-y in Jan’26)continuing to outpace EV demand (-4%), driven by falling battery costs and larger batterypacks; and 2) CATL’s rising market share (44% in Jan’26 vs. 37% in 2025). This levelof growth is underpinned by CATL’s capacity expansion, with 321GWh currently underconstruction (40% of existing capacity) and an increase in capex planned for this year. For 2026, we forecast EBIT per kWh at US$14.5 (flat y-o-y) with limited, short-livedimpact from metal prices.Operating profit reached US$16.7/kWh in 4Q25, ahead ofexpectations. While investors are concerned about potential margin pressure in 1Q26, weexpect costs are passed through and profitability remains well protected. We expect CATL’s sales to grow at a 21% CAGR over the next five years and 5.5%annually through 2050.We believe the recent tensions in the Middle East will acceleratethe electrification megatrend from EVs to trucks, ships to EVTOL and ESS to support thelarge-scale deployment of renewables. We expect CATL to maintain its leading market share(37%) due to its technology edge (including this year’s sodium-ion mass production), strongbrand position in premium EVs, and cost competitiveness in the mass market. This impliesgrowth in line with company guidance of 20-30% industry CAGR over the next five years. Investment Implications We raise our CATL A-share TP from CNY530 to CNY600 on higher earnings expectationsand LT growth potential. We project 2026 EPS to grow 28% y-o-y to CNY20.6/sh, 5% aboveBloomberg consensus (CNY19.6). Our target price implies 20x EV/EBITDA and 29x P/E for2026. For CATL’s H-shares, we raise our TP from HKD530 to HKD580. We rate CATL (A)Outperform and CATL (H) Market-Perform. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS The long-term consequence of energy disruptions in the Middle East is an acceleration of the global electrification megatrend.Concerns over energy security and the pursuit of greater self-sufficiency are pushing more countries away from fossil fuels andtoward electrical energy, notably renewables and nuclear, especially in Asia. The pace at which renewable energy can scale tomeet rising electricity demand will also depend heavily on advancements in battery storage. At the same time, higher oil prices,and the corresponding increases in gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, will encourage a transition in transportation from molecularto electrical energy. This should naturally drive more consumers toward EVs over ICE vehicles and extend electrification frompassenger cars to trucks, ships, and emerging segments such as eVTOL. These dynamics all benefit CATL, the world’s leadingbattery manufacturer, and we believe the company is uniquely positioned to be a key long-term beneficiary and a primary driverof this secular megatrend. RECENT WERE A CLEAR POSITIVE CATL reported its 4Q25 results last week. On stronger-than-expected battery sales and margins, we raised our forecasts.We now model 2026 revenue to grow by 40% y-o-y to RMB595bn and 2027 up 21% y-o-y to RMB718bn, compared withconsensus at +33% and +20%. We project EPS to grow 28% y-o-y to RMB20.6/sh in 2026 and 21% to RMB24.9/sh in 2027.Our 2026 revenue and EPS estimates are now 6% and 5% above Bloomberg consensus, respectively. We raise our CATL A-share target price from CNY530 to CNY600 on higher earnings expectations and LT growth potential(2025–2030 sales CAGR increased from 19% to 21%, and the terminal growth rate raised from 2% to 3%). For CATL’s H-shares, we raise our target price from HKD530 to HKD580. OPERATIONAL METRICS TRACKING WELL CATL delivered 39% y-o-y growth in battery sales volumes in 2025, reinforcing its market leadership. The overall global marketshare of CATL is broadly stable in the mid-to-high-30% range, with market share in passenger vehicle (PV) remained at 36%,commercial vehicles (CV) at 59% and energy storage systems (ESS) at 26%. CATL’s mix remains anchored in PV batteries, butthe share is gradually rotating toward ESS (25% of total) and CV (14% of total). China is still the core market while overseas,especially Europe, has been steadily increasing (16% of total now). Despite the slowdown in China’s EV market, the latest tracker data shows that CATL has sustained y-o-y EV batter