塑造创新：产业政策能否促进专利申请？（英）

Shaping Innovation:CanIndustrial Policies BoostPatent Applications? Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte,Jaden Kim,Rafael Machado Parente,and Samuel Pienknagura WP/26/47 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026MAR IMF Working Paper ResearchDepartment Shaping Innovation: Can Industrial Policies Boost Patent Applications?Prepared bySandra Baquié, Yueling HuangFlorence Jaumotte,Jaden Kim,Rafael Machado Parente,and Samuel Pienknagura Authorized for distribution by Antonio SpilimbergoMarch2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper presents a global empirical analysis of how industrial policies (IPs) affect patentapplications, with an instrumental-variable strategy that addresses selection in policy targeting by leveragingretaliatory dynamics. On average, IPs do not increase domestic patent applications over a four-year period,except when they target sectors with potential distortions or externalities, such as infant industries or low-carbontechnologies. However, IPs temporarily boost foreign patent filings within the same timeframe, consistent withstrategic front-loading by foreign inventors seeking to secure technology protection, and perhaps market access,in the IP-targeted sector. This link between foreign patent applications and IPs is stronger for export-orientedpolicies compared to domestic subsidies, for IPs targeting innovation-central sectors, and in emerging marketsand developing economies. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Baquie, Sandra, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, RafaelMachado Parente, and Samuel Pienknagura. 2026.“Shaping Innovation: Can Industrial Policies Boost PatentApplications?”, IMF Working Paper No. 2026/47. Shaping Innovation:Can IndustrialPolicies Boost PatentApplications? Prepared by Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte,JadenKim,Rafael Machado Parente,andSamuel Pienknagura* Contents 1Introduction5 2Data and Summary Statistics9 2.1Industrial Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 2.2Patents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112.3Innovation network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122.4Infant industries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 3Methods14 3.1Local projections-IV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 3.2Heterogeneity and targeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 4Results17 4.1Protectionist industrial policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .174.2Liberalizing industrial policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204.3Industrial policies by country income group. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204.4Targeting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214.5Robustness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 5Conclusion AAdditional Data Description33BAdditional Results36CRobustness checks42 1Introduction Industrial policies (IPs)–defined as targeted interventions to change the structure of economic ac-tivity (Juh´asz et al., 2024)–have taken center stage in the global policy agenda. After a period ofdecline during the liberalization wave of the 1990s, IPs have seen a resurgence since 2017 in bothadvanced and emerging economies (Evenett et al., 2024). In addition to competitiveness objectives,the recent wave of IPs began as countries grappled with heightened geopolitical tensions, calls forself-reliance in industries critical for national security (for example, semiconductors), increasedvulnerabilities in global value chains, and a need to accelerate the green transition. The recent resurgence of IPs has reignited policy debates on their effectiveness, including theirpotential to foster innovation, one of the main engines of productivity growth. In theory, IPs canboost innovation by supporting investments in R&D, overcoming market failures, and mitigatingcoordination problems. Yet, IPs may also reallocate resources in a non-welfare-enhancing way bysupporting targeted firms at the expense of more productive or innovative ones, exert negativeexternalities across sectors, or distort countries’ relative competitiveness. In practice, the literaturesuggests a mixed track record for IPs (Aghion et al., 2015; Harrison, 2024; Lane, n.d.).Twoexampl