塑造创新：产业政策能否促进专利申请？

Shaping Innovation:CanIndustrial Policies Boost Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte,Jaden Kim,Rafael Machado Parente,and Samuel Pienknagura WP/26/47 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026MAR IMF Working Paper ResearchDepartment Shaping Innovation: Can Industrial Policies Boost Patent Applications?Prepared bySandra Baquié, Yueling HuangFlorence Jaumotte,Jaden Kim,Rafael Machado Parente,and Samuel Pienknagura Authorized for distribution by Antonio Spilimbergo IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper presents a global empirical analysis of how industrial policies (IPs) affect patentapplications, with an instrumental-variable strategy that addresses selection in policy targeting by leveragingretaliatory dynamics. On average, IPs do not increase domestic patent applications over a four-year period,except when they target sectors with potential distortions or externalities, such as infant industries or low-carbon RECOMMENDED CITATION:Baquie, Sandra, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, RafaelMachado Parente, and Samuel Pienknagura. 2026.“Shaping Innovation: Can Industrial Policies Boost Patent WORKING PAPERS Shaping Innovation:Can Industrial Prepared by Sandra Baquie, Yueling Huang, Florence Jaumotte,JadenKim,Rafael Machado Parente,andSamuel Pienknagura* Contents 1Introduction 2Data and Summary Statistics 2.1Industrial Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.2Patents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112.3Innovation network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .122.4Infant industries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 3Methods 143.1Local projections-IV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 3.2Heterogeneity and targeting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 4Results 174.1Protectionist industrial policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 4.2Liberalizing industrial policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204.3Industrial policies by country income group. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .204.4Targeting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .214.5Robustness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 5Conclusion 27 AAdditional Data DescriptionBAdditional Results 1Introduction Industrial policies (IPs)–defined as targeted interventions to change the structure of economic ac-tivity (Juh´asz et al., 2024)–have taken center stage in the global policy agenda. After a period ofdecline during the liberalization wave of the 1990s, IPs have seen a resurgence since 2017 in bothadvanced and emerging economies (Evenett et al., 2024). In addition to competitiveness objectives, The recent resurgence of IPs has reignited policy debates on their effectiveness, including theirpotential to foster innovation, one of the main engines of productivity growth. In theory, IPs canboost innovation by supporting investments in R&D, overcoming market failures, and mitigatingcoordination problems. Yet, IPs may also reallocate resources in a non-welfare-enhancing way bysupporting targeted firms at the expense of more productive or innovative ones, exert negativeexternalities across sectors, or distort countries’ relative competitiveness. In practice, the literature suggests a mixed track record for IPs (Aghion et al., 2015; Harrison, 2024; Lane, n.d.).Twoexamples are often alluded to when presenting arguments against and in favor of IPs:import-substitution IPs in Latin America and export-oriented IPs in East Asia. The former was linked to limited long-run productivity growth (Rodrigues, 2010), whereas the latter likely supported rapid We contribute to this debate by providing, to the best of our knowledge, the first global cross-sectoral empirical analysis of the impact of IPs on innovation. Leveraging the novel classificationof IPs proposed by Juh´asz et al. (2025), who identify IPs within the Global Trade Alert (GTA)database (Evenett and Fritz, 2020), and the sector- and country-level patent data from the INPACT- Our methodology employs the local projection approach to estimate the dynamic responseof patent filings to the implementation of IPs at various horizons.To address the endogeneityof IP targeting–the possibility that policymakers implement IPs in sectors already experiencing local projection coefficients and a