宏观周报：中游、下游持续改善
中观总览 上游：原材料继续上行。能源化工方面，中东局势紧张推高原油价格，带动煤化工板块情绪联动。黑色金属方面，受中澳贸易争端影响，必和必拓纽曼粉进口受限预期引发铁矿石价格上涨。黑色系整体在需求季节性回暖带动下，螺纹钢迎来年内首次去库，价格小幅上涨。焦煤、焦炭小幅反弹。 中游：制造业景气回升。1至2月装备制造业增加值同比增长9.3%，高技术制造业增长达13.1%，整体制造业增加值较先前有所提升。本周化工方面，PX开工持续保持高位，PTA和聚酯开工改善。基建方面，道路沥青开工回升。农业方面，生猪制品开工回升。 下游：本周消费端两新政策正式进入密集落地期，多地启动第二轮家电、汽车置换补贴申请，线下门店客流回暖；清明假期临近，预计旅游消费端持续保持韧性。地产部分本周核心城市“小阳春”成色初显，北京、上海二手房周末带看量创年内新高，多数重点监控城市新房销售持续改善；深圳宣布取消郊区限购政策。 细分行业 大农业：玉米价格高位，棉花价格小幅回落，棕榈油价格震荡；苹果、棉花库存回落 能源：国际原油价格大幅上行，液化天然气价格小幅回落。 采矿业：有色方面锌、铜回落，铅和镍震荡。有色库存方面铜、铅、铝回落；黑色价格方面纯碱、螺纹、热卷、双焦上行。黑色库存方面炼焦煤小幅上行，纯碱和焦炭小幅回落。 化工：甲醇价格持续上行，聚乙烯和苯乙烯价格高位震荡；尿素和PVC库存回落。 基建：混凝土和水泥价格小幅上行，供给量与产能利用率上行。 地产：本周重点监控城市中，上海、广州、成都、西安、济南新房销售较上期有较大回升。企业城市回升幅度较小。 物流运输：美西航线运价指数小幅震荡。国内国际航班数小幅回升。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突。 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价.......................................................................................................................................................
