未来科技：太空科技：全球机遇

Future of Tech: Space Tech— global opportunities The race to participate in the space economy is shifting from a distant ambition to a relevantinvestment theme. While rocket science remains hard, understanding the space value chainand how to invest in it isn’t. That’s where our focus lies: breaking down the evolving space Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Nikhil Arela+91 226 842 1482nikhil.arela@bernsteinsg.com From Prestige to Priority: For much of history, space was a vanity race betweensuperpowers. After the moon landing boom faded, funding collapsed, U.S. space spendingdropped from over 4% of the federal budget in the 1960s to under 1% by the 1980s. Whatkept the flame alive was broader global participation. By the 1990s, more than 20 nationsacross Asia, Europe, and South America had satellites in orbit. The past decade, however,has transformed the landscape. Communications, earth observation, and defense have The Space Value Chain: The space economy can be viewed two ways, by use case or bysupply chain. On a use-case basis, launch vehicles and satellite manufacturing form theupstream, while data and analytics drive the downstream. Frontier markets like miningand interplanetary missions sit beyond. From a supply-chain view, five layers definethe ecosystem: supply of raw materials, component manufacturing, and launch at the The Commercialization of Space: The opportunity is currently at about $615 billion, asper estimates from the Space Foundation, with 78% driven by private sector. More than70% of value is currently in satellites and downstream communications, navigation, anddata services. Launch remains a smaller but rapidly scaling segment, helped by collapsingcosts and the rise of smallsats and LEO constellations. Launch costs have plunged fromover $50,000 to roughly $1,500 per kilogram for low-earth orbit payloads. Smallsats How to invest: Several trends will shape the space industry in the times to come. The firstis the rapidly growing satellite data services - a very profitable part of the value chain andwith scope for deep defense ties, which is emerging as the earliest adopter of the space-tech ecosystem. In data, the companies worth looking at will be the ones with backwardintegration to own the Infra that provides that data, and we’re seeing many recent moveswhere midstream companies are either moving down or analytics companies moving up DETAILS SPACE IS DEMANDING A RELOOK Space is quietly redrawing the boundaries of what humanity can see, know and build. It has often skipped the attention ofpeople as it is neither “visible” in our every day lives like AI does, nor it is believed to have a broader participation but ratherrestricted to sovereign governments traditionally. However, things have changed - while proliferation of satellites in low-earth-orbits have enabled an ecosystem of smallsats, even the services economy around space data and intelligence have HOW TO LOOK AT THE SPACE TECH ECOSYSTEM One can view the space ecosystem from one of the two angles: the first is the more simplistic “Three Pillars” and the secondis more detailed supply chain dynamics. We will get to the latter in a while. First, let’s review the three key pillars of the global THE THREE PILLARS The global space tech ecosystem is framed around the following: Upstream (launch systems, satellites, components),Downstream (communications, Earth observation, navigation and analytics) and Frontier & Exploration (lunar, in-space 1.Upstreamis everything required to reach and operate in space. This encompasses Launch Systems (rockets that carrypayloads to orbit), Satellites and Spacecraft manufacturing (the hardware part), and Components + Subsystems (the 2.Downstreamis where space generates actual returns through upstream. This encompasses communications and internet(the largest revenue pool, anchored by satellite broadband and TV), earth observation and analytics (the intelligence economy built on satellite imagery), and navigation & positioning (the GNSS market, which at $307 billion is the largestsingle segment in the space economy). Downstream is where the economic mass of the sector resides today. 3.The third pillar is Space Exploration and Frontier Markets - the optionality layer. This includes Lunar and planetaryexploration, In-Space manufacturing (using microgravity as an industrial tool), space mining, and space habitats and tourism.These segments are nascent in revenue terms today but represent the transformative potential that justifies today's capital India has a presence in every one of these pillars - historically dominant in the first through ISRO, and now rapidly buildingprivate-sector capabilities across all three. THE SUPPLY CHAIN This is a slightly more detailed way to look at space tech economy and infrastructure - and works better from an investmentperspective if one wants to look at the dominant players. The space economy operates across five distinct supply ch