净零技术展望

© Crown copyright 2025 This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open GovernmentLicence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visitnationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 This publication is available atwww.gov.uk/official-documents Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us atGovernment Office for Science, 100 Parliament Street, London, SW1A 2BQ. Email:climate@go-science.gov.uk This is not a statement of government policy Contents Introduction4 Industry6 Heatandbuildings11 Agriculture,landuseandwaste15 Power21 Transport26 Cross-cuttingsolutions Non-RD&Dtechnologyenablers38 Acronymglossary 39 Acknowledgements40 Introduction For each sub-sector, we assessed thecurrent technology and market readinesslevel (TMRL) of technologies that might bepart of the mix in 2050.1We also assessedthe technology certainty level (TCL), whichreflects the current confidence that thetechnology solutions will be part of thefinal mix. In some sub-sectors, we included‘wildcard’ technologies: novel and nascenttechnologies that are highly uncertain butpotentially important. In some cases, thetechnology may be established in othercountries’ decarbonisation pathways, butnot the UK’s. The Net Zero Technology Outlook is afutures exercise that sets out a ‘bestestimate’ of the technology mix neededin key emitting sectors to reach net zeroby 2050, and identifies the research,development and demonstration (RD&D)needed to get there. The Outlook providesa strategic overview to help orientdecision-making across government andthe research community in support of theClean Energy Superpower Mission. TheOutlook does not reflect UK governmentpolicy or official positions. To inform our analysis, we conductedover 20 interviews and a peer reviewexercise involving approximately45 experts from the research community,as well as policy leads from relevantgovernment departments, duringthe second half of 2024. We alsoincorporated relevant material fromestablished scenario modelling, policydocuments, industry reports andpeer-reviewed literature. Technology certainty and readiness foreach sector were evaluated using theframework in Table 1. The report also setsout RD&D challenges for three cross-cutting areas: greenhouse gas (GHG)removals and Carbon Capture andStorage (CCS), hydrogen, and biomass. This report covers five major emittingsectors, comprising a total of 18 sub-sectors: •Industry:steel, cement, chemicals, glassand ceramics, and food and drink •Transport:surface transport, maritimeand aviation•Heatandbuildings:heating and cooling,energy efficiency and building design•Agriculture,landuseandwaste:agriculture, land use and nature-basedsolutions, and waste•Power:variable renewables, cleanfirm power, clean dispatchable power,energy storage and system flexibility,and transmission and distribution This Outlook is our best estimate ofthe future, but we recognise that noteverything will unfold exactly as expected.Some technologies will progress betterthan expected, some slower, and somenew technologies, challenges andopportunities will emerge. RD&D needs for each sector arecategorised as follows: •RD&Dfortechnologydevelopment:RD&D to develop and innovateearlier-stage technologies to supporttheir scale-up and commercialisation •RD&Dfordecisionsupport:research anddevelopment to support governmentdecisions on technology choice orpolicy approach as part of the netzero pathway The report emphasises RD&D measuresto support the development of criticaltechnologies for net zero. However,we recognise that other enablers playan important (and in some cases,more important) role in technologydevelopment. These include infrastructure,the availability of a skilled workforce,public engagement, supply chains andglobal market conditions, and policylevers. Broader policy considerationsregarding net zero technologies aretouched on briefly in the ‘non-RD&Denablers’ section. •RD&Dfordelivery:research anddevelopment to support the deliveryand implementation of more maturetechnologies, as well as infrastructureand practices Emissions data for each sector comefrom theUK government’s 2023 territorialgreenhouse gas emissions data. 2050residual emissions data projections comefrom the2021 Net Zero Strategy. Industry Sectoroverview Foundation industries (steel, cement, chemicals,and glass and ceramics) and the food and drinkindustry are strategically important to the UK,supporting economic growth and national security. Sourcesanddriversofemissionlevels •Emissions from fuel combustion forheat and electricity supply•Industrial process emissions, such as iron ore reduction to make steeland calcium carbonate decomposition to make cement•Efficient use of resources and energy•Demand for low-carbon alternative materials Expectedresidualemissionsin2050:3.2-10.2 MtCO2e •Hydrogen direct reduced iron•Electrochemical methods of iron production(s