全球新兴市场周报：触底了吗？尚未

20 March 2026 The View: Bottom of the barrel? Not yetWemaintain our stance since the beginning of the Iran war: very cautious until clearer Emerging Markets WeeklyGlobal signs that US/Israel war aims have been achieved, but constructive thereafter. EMpositioning hasn’t capitulated, keeping markets vulnerable to energy price spikes. We likerates receivers on growth risks. Cautious FX and EXD.–D. Hauner Asia Economics: China – Better-than-expected activity Industrial activity and investment rebounded notably in Jan-Feb, with IP and FAI growthpicking up to 6.3% yoy and 1.8% yoy. The strong start to 2026 lowers near-termexpectations for further fiscal or monetary easing absent a renewed slowdown.–H. Qiao Asia Strategy: THB on weaker footing into 2QOil price shock is likely to exacerbate Thailand's weak 2Q CA seasonality (due to tourism low season and income repatriation). We revised THB forecast higher to 33/USD by 2Q,before appreciation to 31/USD by end-2026 as basic balance surplus returns.–A. Gupta EEMEA Economics: CEE – high bar to hikeUnlike 2022, today's shock is about price, not supply. CEE buffered by diversified supply andpositive real rates. Cuts not in sight if oil above $80/bbl. But hikes only in extremecase: NBP/NBR more at risk; HUF key to NBH; CNB can hold.–M. Doan EEMEA Strategy: Long KENINT 48 vs PKSTAN 51 David Hauner, CFA>>Global EM FI/FX StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1241david.hauner@bofa.com Weentered long KENINT 48 vs PKSTAN 51. Since the start of the Iran War PKSTAN andKENYA spreads have sold off roughly in line with their 3m betas to EM HY.–R. Adlakha LatAm Economics: Mexico – Iran won’t stop Banxico Claudio PironEmerging Asia FI/FX StrategistMerrill Lynch (Singapore)+65 6678 0401claudio.piron@bofa.com The main takeawaysfrom our recent trip to Mexico are: (1) Banxico will likely continuecutting rates; (2) Mexico is prioritizing growth; and (3) USMCA uncertainty may persist,but preferential treatment will continue.–C. Capistran, C. Gonzalez Rojas GEMs FI Strategy & EconomicsBofASSee Team Page for List of Analysts LatAm Strategy: Mexico – Cutting through the fog of warMexican rates have sold off more than 80bp followingthe spike in crude oil prices. The curve now prices 50bp of hikes in 2026 and 75bp by mid‑2027. We see this as excessiveand like 2y TIIE receivers as Banxico may continue cutting.–E. Aguirre, C. Gonzalez Rojas Seepages 24-28 for a list of ouropen tradesas well as those closedover the past 12 months Sovereign Strategy: South Asia – hardest hitWe moved Pakistan to UW and SriLanka to MW on tightening energy crunch. PK - more exposed on weaker macro, higher GCC dependence/exposure.–R. Adlakha See alist of common abbreviationstoward the end of this report. Week Ahead: Monetary policy meeting in Mexico, South Africa, Hungary and Chile.CTAMonitor: Paid across EM rates; mixed across EM FX. Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources toabsorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may havea conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 37 to 39. Analyst Certification on page 36.Valuation & Risk on page 30. The View David Hauner, CFA>>MLI (UK) Bottom of the barrel? Not yetWe maintain our stance since the beginning of the Iran war: very cautious until clearer signs that US/Israel war aims have been achieved, but constructive thereafter. EMpositioning hasn’t capitulated, keeping markets vulnerable to energy price spikes. Key ishow long they last. We like rates receivers on growth risks. Cautious in FX and EXD. Everyone still wants to buy dips While energy price volatility remains extreme, EM remains vulnerable as investors havenot really capitulated–they still want to buy the dip. A range of indicators of EMpositioning from shorts in ETFs to CTA positioning in currencies remain at the bullishend of the range since‘22 and haven’t moved much since the war started (Exhibit 1). The only indicator that has truly capitulated is EMFX sentiment on our monthly survey,but note that investors have not yet gone long the USD but just turned neutral.Moreover, it seems that sentiment has declined much more than actual positions. Ourtracking of FX slows suggests that asset managers have not cut EM positions m