A beneficiary from industry consolidation

Tuhu Car (9690 HK) A beneficiary from industryconsolidation Target PriceHK$19.00(Previous TPHK$23.00)Up/Downside39.2%Current PriceHK$13.65 Maintain BUY.Tuhu’s 2H25 adjustednet profitmisseddue tolower-than-expected GPM.However, its strong store expansion and continued franchiseprofitability improvement give us more confidence in its market sharegainsinFY26-27E. We view Tuhu’sfocus onmarket share gainsas a right strategy amidindustry consolidation andevolving after-sales service landscape. We believeTuhu is still better positioned than most peers despite our short-term profit trimas a trade-off, especiallywithlingering macro challenges. Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk 2H25miss on GPM.Tuhu’s2H25 revenue rose 12% YoY to RMB8.6bn,2%higher than our forecast,driven byacceleratedstore openings (+ 803 in2H25 vs.+331 in 1H25).Itsgross margin fell 1.8ppts YoY and 2.0ppts HoHto 21.3% in 2H25, weaker than expecteddue toitsaggressivepricingto grabmarket share.Adjusted operating expenses(excl. share-based payments(SBP))in 2H25 were largely in line,whileSBPexceededourexpectationdue toincreasedinvestmentin AI.Accordingly, Tuhu’s adjusted net profitrose 9% YoYandfell 29% HoH to RMB290mnin 2H25, lower than ourpriorforecast by RMB60mn. Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data We view Tuhu as anindustry consolidationbeneficiaryand marketsharepriority as a right strategy.Itappears to us that Tuhu has prioritizedmarket share gains over high profitgrowth now to solidify its leading positionamid industry consolidation. Ittargets 1,000 new store additions in FY26E,as>90% of storeswith 6+ monthsare profitable and the average paybackperiod has shortened to 30 months.We project such store expansion paceto continue in FY27Ewith total number of stores reaching 10,000, benefitingfrom industry consolidation and evolving after-sales service landscape.Although such strategy may be at the cost of lower gross margin, we are ofthe view that Tuhu is better positioned than most peers with its continuouslyimproving operational efficiencyand supply chain pricing advantage. Earnings/Valuation.We project FY26E revenue to rise 11%YoY toRMB18.3bn with a GPM of 24.2% (+0.1pptYoY) and anoperating expenseratio(excl. SBP)of21.8%(flat YoY).Accordingly, we expectFY26E adjustednet profitto rise 5% YoYto RMB738mn, or 16% lower thanour prior forecast.We expect strategic focus on market share gains and investment inoperational efficiencyimprovementtostart to partially pay off fromFY27E,although thevisibilityis still low.We project27% YoYgrowth inadjustednetprofitamid 9% YoY growth in revenue and a GPM of 24.5%.We maintainourBUY rating andtrimtarget pricefrom HK$23.00to HK$19.00,stillbasedon 20x adjusted FY26E P/E.Keyrisksto our rating and target priceincludeslowernetworkexpansion, lower-than-expectedrevenue/margins, as well asa sector de-rating. Source: FactSet Related Report“Tuhu Car (9690 HK)-Market share gain on superb management”-22Aug2025 Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible forthe content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (asdefined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevantbroad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road,Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Ba