高分红有望维持，大峪口磷矿项目值得期待

高分红有望维持，大峪口磷矿项目值得期待 High dividendto be maintained&Dayukou phosphate mine projecttobe produced 最新动态 ➢25年业绩略有承压。2025年，集团收入为人民币120.34亿元，同比增幅为0.7%。主要原因是化肥、化工产品市场行情波动及生产装置增产增效影响。2025年，集团毛利为人民币15.71亿元，同比降幅为7.9%。主要原因是：(1)2025年尿素价格下降抵消销量增加、成本下降导致尿素毛利减少人民币220.4百万元；(2)2025年磷复肥销量增加、成本上涨抵消价格上涨导致毛利减少人民币61.8百万元；(3)2025年甲醇销量增加、成本下降抵消价格下降导致毛利增加人民币144.9百万元；(4)2025年丙烯腈销量增加、成本下降抵消价格下降导致毛利增加人民币4.8百万元。2025年，集团净利润为人民币1116.0百万元，同比减少人民币35.1百万元。 ➢生产装置实现安稳长优运行。2025年，公司持续夯实安全生产根基，生产装置实现安稳长优运行，2025年全年安全环保形势稳定向好，环保污染事故事件继续保持为零。6套主力装置连续三年全部达成“两个100天或一个200天”长周期运行目标，其中富岛一期化肥装置连续运行469天、华鹤煤化工化肥装置连续运行376天，双双刷新自身及行业纪录。 ➢实现营销增效，销售结构持续优化。2025年，公司持续深化营销体系优化与农业服务转型，不断完善电商平台功能。通过精准定价、抢抓出口机遇等举措实现营销增效，销售结构持续优化，农业服务与产品价值协同提升。2025年全年公司累计销售尿素192.2万吨、甲醇151.7万吨、磷肥54.9万吨、复合肥25.8万吨、丙烯腈系列产品27.6万吨；出口尿素10.5万吨、磷肥16.4万吨、甲醇3.4万吨、丙烯腈2.2万吨。 动向解读 ➢公司2026年重点工作：1.夯实本质安全根基，持续优化HSE体系建设，践行绿色发展理念；2.推动营销服务转型，优化渠道管理与市场策略，推进品牌价值赋能；3.构建穿透式内控与智能风控体系，深化降本增效，提升精益运营水平；4.推动数智化转型发展，深化拓展“人工智能+”场景应用，推进智能工厂建设；5.强化科技创新驱动，加大研发投入，加速中试平台建设与成果转化；及6.聚焦现有产业优化提升，加速培育新兴赛道，构建第二增长曲线。 ➢大峪口磷矿项目预计2026年完工。我们认为，公司大峪口160万吨磷矿项目预计于2026年9月底前完工，并于2026年会有磷矿石产品产出。 ➢公司派息率有望维持50%以上。我们认为，公司近两年的派息率维持在50%以上，由于公司资金充裕并考虑到到央企市值管理要求，我们对于未来两年公司维持50%以上的派息率充满信心。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为11.20亿元、12.93亿元和15.16亿元。考虑到同行业可比公司估值，我们给予公司2026年12倍PE，按照港币兑人民币汇率为0.88计算，对应目标价为3.31港元，维持“收集”评级。 风险提示 产品价格变动风险；原材料价格变动风险。 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位，主要覆盖能源化工和材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过600篇，主要覆盖标的包括： 1）化工&化肥：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国联塑、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、浦林成山、中海石油化学、中国旭阳集团、龙蟠科技、彩客新能源、天德化工、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、米高集团、大成生化科技； 2）能源&公用事业：中创新航、中集安瑞科、新奥能源、长江基建集团、中国能源建设、中煤能源、宏华集团、中海油田服务、安东油田服务、惠生工程、协合新能源、北京能源国际、绿色动力环保、中国光大绿色环保、首钢资源、新特能源、中裕能源、北京燃气蓝天、达力普控股； 3）有色&材料：中国宏桥、紫金黄金国际、万国黄金集团、潼关黄金、中国罕王、中广核矿业、稀美资源、首佳科技、信义光能、华新水泥、华润建材科技、大明国际。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 188 0135 3537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdict