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莫桑比克经济更新，2026年3月：从脆弱到稳定——为什么财政改革不能等待

金融2026-03-19世界银行@***

核心观点

莫桑比克正处于关键转折点，需要缓解财政压力，同时加速增长并加强社会凝聚力。该国面临经济增长缓慢、宏观经济财政状况面临挑战以及社会需求上升等问题。2023年至2024年，实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长从5.5%急剧下降至2.2%，2025年进一步收缩0.5%。经济活动受到2024年10月大选后发生的民众骚乱的破坏，但自2022年以来，大规模的宏观经济失衡一直对增长造成压力。经济增长预计在2026-2028年为1-2%，不足以提高生活水平。预计经济增长低于人口增长率（2.8%），因此不足以显著减少贫困。实际国民总收入（GNI）人均在2015年至2025年间下降了8%。

关键数据

2025年，贫困率估计为62.9%，约有1990万人生活在国家贫困线以下（每天43.7莫桑比克梅蒂卡尔）。
2025年，财政赤字从2024年的6.1%下降至4.1%，但这是以牺牲资本支出为代价的。
2025年，工资支出占GDP的15.0%，是全球最高的之一，而利息支付占GDP的3.7%。
2025年，出口有所恢复，主要受矿产出口的推动。
2025年，进口反弹，主要受机械和燃料的推动。
2025年，经常账户赤字从2024年的11%扩大至14%，主要受食品和燃料价格上涨的推动。

研究结论

财政政策：莫桑比克面临严重的流动性挑战，导致债务偿还和其他款项延迟。有限的财政空间和不断上升的国内融资需求使整个金融系统的流动性紧张，限制了对私营部门的信贷，从而削弱了企业投资和扩张的能力。需要采取果断的政策措施来控制工资支出，并加强国内收入动员。
地区差异：尽管2009年至2015年经济增长强劲，但繁荣在地区之间分布不均，贫困仍然很高。需要制定有针对性的地区战略和政策，以支持经济增长和减少贫困。
城乡经济：农村地区和较小的省份在推动经济活动方面发挥着越来越大的作用，但农业生产力停滞不前，导致农村贫困人口陷入贫困陷阱。需要改善农村地区的基础设施和公共服务，提高农业生产力，并加强城乡之间的联系。
政策建议：需要采取一系列政策措施来解决莫桑比克面临的挑战，包括控制工资支出、加强国内收入动员、改善农村地区的基础设施和公共服务、提高农业生产力、加强城乡之间的联系，以及加强应对、预防和恢复冲击的政策框架。

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