欧洲风险投资中的幂律——TechBBQ LP论坛2025

Copenhagen26 Aug 2025 1Tech & Power Laws 2The Rise of European Tech 3Europeʼs Most Promising VCs Tech vs. Non-Tech: Earnings powercontinues to bifurcatefurther … I'm somewhatembarrassed to saythatTim Cookhasmade Berkshire a lotmore money than Iever have."" – Warren Buffett Hendrik Bessembinderʼs pioneering research into the global public markets,demonstrates that 100% of returns came from 2.4% of companies. Venture Capital outcomes have a similar profile: 2% of companies create89% of value, 0.02% create 61% (just six companies create nearly half) Number of companies founded since 1990 It seems clear that understanding power laws really matters when it comes to investing inthe companies who generate the majority of public and private market returns… 1.2%VC backed companies become Unicorns - valued at $1bn or more 1.4%VC backed companies become Thoroughbreds - generating $100m revenue or more 2.4%of public companies become Lions - responsible for 100% of public market returns Power Law is not new. But this time, concentration has also been hyper-local. Four European $100B+ tech companies: 3x US-owned and 1x US-listed Venture outcomes aredominated by outliers— a handful ofcompanies return the fund. Missing a $10B–$100B company ismore painfulthan backinga loser. TAM sizing is a trap — thebest founders expand marketsfarbeyond early estimates. No such thing as a “safe 2x” — venture only works if you aimfor5x+ at every stage. The biggest mistakes aresins of omission: ●Donʼt be cute on price.●Donʼt underestimate generational founders.●Donʼt overthink markets. – Shardul Shah, Partner at Index Ventures 1Tech & Power Laws 2The Rise of European Tech 3Europeʼs Most Promising VCs Venture in Europe has started to come of age Share of global VC invested in European startups (1975-2024) $3.5 tn value created by European VC-backed companies since 1990. Incl categoryleaders like Adyen vs. Stripe, Revolut, Spotify vs. Netflix, OpenAI vs. DeepMind Combined enterprise value Europe VC-backed Europe producesunicorns at thesame rate as theUS, per amountraised Strongest cohort ofentrepreneurialtalent so far … Number of VC-backed startups coming out of … …. with strongest-ever pipeline of startups And a sprawlingAI startupecosystem StockholmʼsLovable is thefastest growingAI startup in theworld European VC firms raise about $30 billion per year. 1Tech & Power Laws2The Rise of European Tech3Europeʼs Most Promising VCs Power LawInvestorsOver 22,000 investors rankedquantitatively & transparently7th Edition A typical Power Law distribution In Europe,mid-sized VC firmsare raising themost capital. Arguably it shouldfollow more abarbell curve:backing clearwinners andemerging specialistswith a unique angle Major differences in Seed toSeries A conversion rates The leading 5% convert 63% of their seedinvestments to Series A, with the bestexceeding 75%. Startups backed by theseinvestors are 4.5x more likely to advancecompared to those in the bottom quartile. This disparity is driven by multiple factors:superior deal access, stronger selection,active value-add support, and topfounders gravitating toward investors withproven track records. And the top quality 5% consistently outperforms on all four metrics, doing moredeals, raising larger follow-on capital from higher quality investors LPs Invest Index