宏观周报：火上浇油

Fuel on the fire Energy prices spiked on increased geopolitical risks as moredata frames the macro landscape Jennifer Cardilli +1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.com The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications for Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US Read the Research:•• Thinking Macro: A Claudy inflation outlook Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Energy Sigma: Chain reaction• •FX and EM Views: Looking beyond Middle East uncertainties• •EM Asia: Assessing the vulnerabilities• PatrickCoffey* +44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK Join ourThursday Macrocall this week to hear more from Research & Trading on the oil Last week, PMG launched a new Barclays Live hub calledMiddle East Escalation. CONTENTS Barclays Research Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Barclays Economic Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5What are our views across asset classes?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Looking ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Key forecasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Global Conferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Barclays Research Highlights Thinking Macro: A Claudy inflation outlook Markets should arguably be pricing a negative core inflation risk premium beyond the nearterm, not a positive one, which would be a flip from our thinking entering this year and Energy Sigma: Chain reaction Six days into the Iran conflict, uncertainty is still rising and while there has been a move towarda convergence with our $100/b view over the course of the week, we still think it likely gets FX and EM Views: Looking beyond Middle East uncertainties Three highly uncertain paths lie ahead for the Iran conflict. However, on all three paths, someassets may experience lasting damage, while others may be only indirectlyaffectedand thusopportune to own. We develop a framework to locate both long and short exposures and move EM Asia: Assessing the vulnerabilities Most Asian economies are net importers of energy and will be negativelyaffectedby theescalation in Iran. We specify potential channels that could impact growth and inflation. Incredit, we highlight trades to position for these vulnerabilities. In FX/rates, we continue to see FIGURE 1. Asia is broadly a net importer of energy Note: we used HS codes 2709 for crude oil. 2710 for refined oil, 2711 excluding 271111 for petroleum gas, 271111 for LNG,and 2712 and 2713 as other petroleum products. India, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Philippines data are as of 2024Source: US ITC, Barclays Research Markets were rocked by the geopolitical escalation. There were large moves across all assetclasses as uncertainty around the economic outlook increased. Energy prices surged. This fedinto inflation concerns and where oil could move from here. Overall, we think there is FX markets reacted quickly; we see three paths ahead and argue that some assets may endup pricing the scars of elevated energy uncertainties, while others may prove to have beenonly indirectlyaffectedby higher volatility. Past geopolitical shocks, while disruptive for markets in the near term, mostlyofferedgood medium-term buying opportunities: thisremains our playbook, but timing is key. US macro data was mixed. ISM services were strong (the highest level since mid-2022),January retail salessoftened(in line with expectations), while payrolls were weak with a head Euro area headline and core inflation accelerated more than expected in February (+1.9%/+2.4% respectively). We are still positive on European banks, as they have fairly limited directexposure to the Middle East, albeit private credit is a growing risk factor to monitor. Middle East escalations overshadowed what was already intended to be a low-key UK SpringStatement. The focus now is on the MPC March meeting. We expect a 25bp cut but thebalance could easily tip to a hold given heightened geopolitical uncertainty. China PMIs weresoftand the government unveiled a growth target of +4.5-5%: the firstdownward adjustment in four years reflecting domestic structural challenges and persistentexternal headwinds. China’s energy exposure to the Middle East is high but the impact of an Barclays Economic Outlook What are our views across asset classes? Looking ahead •Global Traders' Guide: Key data and event• In theUS,Februaryexisting home sales(Tue), FebruaryCPIinflation(Wed), Januarytrade balanceand housing starts (Thu), Januarypersonal income and PCE estimates, Q4GDPsecond estimate and JanuaryJOLTSdata (all on Fri);Fed speakers: Bowman( Wed & Thu). InEurope,we watch forGermany Jan