全球经济综述：2026年3月13日

13 March 2026 | 2:57PM EDT | Research | Economics|By Joseph Briggs and others Global Economics 3/13/26 2:50PM ET Focus on the Middle East conflict: The war in Iran has disrupted energy supply, leading to higher oil prices whichwe expect will lower global GDP by 0.3pp and boost headline inflation by0.5-0.6pp on average over the next 12 months. (vs. 2.9% previously) and 2.9% headline inflation on a Q4/Q4 basis (vs. 2.3%previously).Expecting holds at DM central bank meetings next week: We continue to expect two 25bp cuts this year but havepushed backthetiming to September and December (from June and September previously). We expect the ECB to remain on hold at 2% on March 19.We expect theBoEto hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 and forecastthe next cut to occur in July.We expect the BoC to remain on hold at 2.25% on March 18.We expect theBOJto keep the policy rate unchanged 0.75% at and still seethe next hike in July. US Economics 3/13/26 9:53AM ET We have adjusted our economic forecasts to reflect the impact ofhigher oilprices and the war in Iran:Our strategists haveraisedtheir forecast for Brent oil prices:Baseline:Brent averages $98 in March and April and falls to $71 by2026Q4.Risk scenario (1 month Strait of Hormuz disruption):Brent averages $110 inMarch and April and falls to $76 by 2026Q4.Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices: Boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively.Lowers GDP growth by 0.1pp (with half this impact from a temporary priceincrease that gradually fades). We have made the following changes to our economic forecasts:Headline PCE inflation: +0.8pp to 2.9% in December 2026Core PCE inflation: +0.2pp to 2.4% in December 2026GDP growth: -0.3pp to 2.2% for 2026 Q4/Q4 (or 2.6% on a full-year basis)Peak unemployment rate: +0.1pp to 4.6% in Q312-month recession probability: +5pp to 25%In the oil price risk scenario, we see headline PCE inflation at 3.3% (with a peak of 4½% in the spring) and core inflation at 2.5% in December 2026, andGDP growing 2.1% Q4/Q4 or 2.5% on a full-year basis. We have pushed back the timing of the twoFed cutswe expect to Septemberand December.A higher inflation path will make it harder for the Fed to cut soon. By September, we expect both some further labor market softening andprogress on underlying inflation to contribute to the case for a cut. The shelter components slowed to 0.20% (vs. 0.23% in January), as theofficial CPI housing measures continue tocatch downto the pace of newlease rent growth. at 2¼%. We expect spillover effects from higher oil prices to raise core inflation a bit this year but continue to think that the underlying trend is headed a bit lower. 3/13/26 10:25AM ET Further changesto our economic forecasts across Europe. We lower our Euro area full-year 2026 real GDP forecast to 1.0%, bringingthe total downgrade to 0.3pp since the onset of the Iran war.We now expect Euro area headline inflation to peak at 2.9% in 2026Q2 (vs In the UK, we have lowered our 2026 real GDP forecast to 0.7% (vs. 1.1% before the conflict).Assessing second round inflation risks:The monetary policy implications of the ongoing spike in energy prices depend importantly on whether the shock creates second-round inflation boosts. We see four reasons why this is less likely relative to 2022 under our The energy shock is smaller and narrower.The labour market has more slack.Core inflation is starting from a lower base.Fiscal policy is less expansionary. We conclude that the economy has“greater capacity to absorb shocks” today but remain vigilant to higher pass-through from energy prices to core inflation if the energy crisis intensifies.Soft manufacturing data across the rest of the Euro area: Germanindustrial production (IP) declined by -0.5%mom in January, whilemanufacturing orders decreased by 11.1%.Industrial production ex. construction rose in January in Austria, wasflat inthe Netherlands, and declined in Finland and, notably, Ireland (-9.8%mom).In Italy, industrial production ex. construction declined by -0.6%mom inJanuary (vs. -0.5% in December)Industrial productionexcluding construction in the Euro Area declined by In France, exports rose by 0.7% rise in exports while imports declined by 3.6%.UK JanuaryGDPgrowth surprised to the downside (0% mom vs 0.2% Stronger spending was offset by reduced output in the administrative andsupport services, hospitality, and transport and storage industries. Asia/EM Economics 3/13/26 4:16AM ET Impact of higher energy prices on Asian economies Based on ourrevisedoil and natural gas price assumptions, we adjusted oureconomic forecasts across the region for 2026.For CPI inflation, we revised forecasts up 0.3–1.2pp across regionaleconomies; in many cases, revisions would be larger absent governmentsubsidies or price caps.We trimmed our China growth forecast by 0.1pp to 4.7% for 2026, withlarger downgrades of 0.3–0.5pp in most other economies.Curr