The next $1T company will be a software company masquerading as a services firm. Founders of AI tools are concerned about being overtaken by advancements in models like Claude, but selling services leverages these improvements, making offerings faster, cheaper, and more competitive. Intelligence tasks, like coding, are rule-based, while judgement tasks, such as prioritizing features, require experience and instinct.
Currently, AI is most advanced in software engineering, where it handles intelligence work while humans manage judgement. This trend is expanding to other professions. AI models are evolving from copilots, which assist professionals with tools, to autopilots, which directly deliver outcomes to customers.
The transition to autopilots is accelerated in fields with high intelligence-to-judgement ratios and existing outsourcing. The playbook for autopilots involves starting with outsourced, intelligence-heavy tasks (e.g., NDAs, insurance brokerage, accounting) and expanding to insourced, judgement-heavy work as AI capabilities grow.
Key markets for autopilots include:
- Insurance brokerage ($140-200B)
- Accounting and audit ($50-80B outsourced in the US)
- Healthcare revenue cycle ($50-80B outsourced in the US)
- Claims adjusting ($50-80B including TPAs)
- Tax advisory ($30-35B)
- Legal, transactional work ($20-25B)
- IT managed services ($100B+)
- Supply chain and procurement ($200B+)
- Recruitment and staffing ($200B+)
- Management consulting ($300-400B)
In 2025, copilots dominated growth, but many are shifting to autopilots. Pure-play autopilots offer an opportunity to capture significant market share by leveraging existing outsourcing budgets and expanding into in-house work. Companies like Harvey, Crosby, and The Coverage are leading in specific sectors, while innovators like Rillet, Basis, and Anterior are pioneering AI-native services.
For those building autopilots, partnerships and market outreach are crucial for success.
