又一轮大宗商品上涨还是另有原因？

Another Commodity Rally or Something Another commodity rally or something different? Lithium pricing has seen a strong run-up recently, rising ~120% YoY and 175% from2025 lows. In this note, we identify the key drivers of this rally and analyze whetherit is attributable to a broad-based shift into commodities or a structural tightening Mike McNultyResearch Associate Last month, Deutsche Bank's Metals and Mining team published 'Structurallyhigher geopolitical risk to support higher prices,' The report argued that elevatedgeopoliticalvolatility necessitates bringing higher-cost supply online,whilestrategic stockpiling could further support prices. While themes are emerging in We believe the direct pricing impact from these geopolitical factors is likely limitedon Lithium specifically. The Lithium market remains dominated by China, whichcontrols the majority of global refining capacity (~80%) and ~15% of global supply.Furthermore, most global price benchmarks are based on Chinese domestic prices So while we believe geopolitical uncertainty could support higher Lithiumpricing, on the margin, we do not believe this is the key driver of the pricing run-up What is driving Lithium pricing higher YoY, Lithium's price performance has exceeded that of copper by 76 points, nickelby 103 points, and the BCOM commodity index by 98 points. This out-performanceaccelerated toward the end of 2025, coinciding withrising expectations for the In our 2026 Lithium Outlook, we adopted a more bullish view, identifying BESS asa key catalyst that could tighten the market in 2026/2027. Consequently, we revisedour BESS demand forecast upward by 7% to 342kt LCE for 2026e, and projecteddemand to grow an additional 25% to 528kt by 2028e (note revisions were at time On the supply side, the response to higher prices has been muted. While someproducers have signaled possible restarts of operations currently in C&M, only PLShas made official announcements to bring new capacity online. In China, wheredata is more opaque, we understand that CATL's key mine remains in C&M. This Lastly, based on industry checks, we believe current finished product inventories atupstream smelters has decreased from over 20 days in 1H25 to ~5 days and rawmaterial safety stock at downstream cathode plants has shortened from two weeks In short, while we believe elevated geopolitical tensions can partially be supportinghigher Lithium pricing, we believe the main driver to be stronger BESS adoptionwhich we forecast will lead to a market balance by the end of this year / 2027. Supply 2 March 2026Metals & Mining We encourage investors interested in Lithium to read our recent notes on the Deep Dive on Framing the BESS Landscape Here and Now, Revisiting Historic Bull Cycles in Context of Current Cycle Early signs for Lithium market deficit or are investors too optimistic? Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page onour website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectissuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anycompensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Corinne Blanchard, David Begleiter. Equity Rating and Dispersion Key The Equity Rating Dispersion Chart depicts the following: The proportion of recommendations that are rated "buy", "sell" and "hold" over the previous 12 months. This is shown forsecurities issued in the stated region e.g. "Europe Universe". See rating definitions below. This is represented by the"Companies Covered" bars in the chart. The percentage value displayed above the bar is the proportion as a percentage. Next to each of the three respective bars showing the proportion of "buy", "sell" and "hold" recommendations we providetwo additional bars to show: - The proportion of "buy", "sell" or "hold recommendations where Deutsche Bank and or/Affiliates provided MIFIDInvestment or Ancillary Services in the past 12 months. This is represented in the "MIFID Investment and AncillaryServices" bar. The percentage value displayed above the bar shows the proportion of Companies Covered with the givenrating where DB has also provided MIFID Investment and Ancillary Services in the past 12 months. E.g. 50% above the - The p