吉布提：升级税收政策

DJIBOUTIUpgrading Tax Policy January 2026 Prepared BySébastien Leduc (IMF) DISCLAIMER The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). 2026 International Monetary Fund [HLS/018/26] High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportFiscal Affairs Department (FAD) Djibouti: Upgrading Tax PolicyPrepared by Sébastien Leduc TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries ofthe assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-levelobjectives, findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:Djibouti’s low and declining tax-to-GDP ratio underscores the need for well-designed taxpolicy reforms. Against this backdrop, the authorities requested capacity development support from theIMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department to identify reform options and priorities. The program focuses on incometaxes, value-added taxes, and property taxes, and includes technical training on the estimation andreporting of tax expenditures. JEL Classification NumbersH2, H20, H21, H22, H23, H24, H25Keywords:Tax policy, value added tax, wage tax, personal income tax, tax incentives, tax policy unit Background Djibouti has experienced robust economic growth averaging 5.6 percent annually between 2012and 2024, driven largely by substantial infrastructure investments aligned with its long-term developmentstrategy—Djibouti Vision 2035—which seeks to position the country as a regional and continentallogistics and commercial hub. However, these investments have significantly increased public debt fromnearly 40 percent of GDP a decade ago to 70 percent today. The concurrent downward trend in taxrevenues as a share of GDP underscores the urgent need to mobilize additional revenues. In this context, the Djiboutian authorities are determined to undertake tax policy reformsandexpressed interest in a medium-term technical assistance program to review the current tax system andidentify suitable reform options. In March 2023, the IMF responded by setting out a capacity developmentprogram to support Djibouti in reforming its tax system. Several targeted capacity development activities have been delivered since 2023 as part of thisprogram, covering a wide range of tax policy topics. These included reviewing the value added tax(VAT), the wage tax, a new draft investment code, and the property tax. In addition, support has beenprovided for the creation of a tax policy unit, initiating preparations for the nextAssises Nationales sur laFiscalité, and improving and updating reporting on tax expenditures. Several of these activities have beendelivered in collaboration with the Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) and madepossible by financial support from the Global Public Finance Partnership (GPFP). Summary of Findings Djibouti’s tax ratio is noticeably low relative to peer groups. It stands at 11 percent of GDP,compared to averages of 15.9 percent for non-oil MENA countries, 15.1 percent for Sub-Saharan Africancountries, and 16 percent for lower-middle-income countries. This suggests that initiating tax reformsenabling Djibouti to align its tax revenue withcomparator averages could unlock an additional 4 to 5percentage points of GDP in revenue over the medium term. The revenue gap between Djibouti and itspeers has widened since 2010—when Djibouti’s tax revenues stood at 14.8 percent of GDP—largely dueto reductions in revenues from the VAT, customs duties (taxe intérieure sur la consommation), andbusiness profits tax (including thecontribution de la patente). Several constraints hinder revenue mobilization in Djibouti. The absence of a whole-of-governmentrevenue strategy over the medium term complicates policy development and increases the risk ofintroducing incoherent or suboptimal policies. This challenge is compounded by limited technicalexpertise in tax policymaking, a gap that a new dedicated tax policy unit could help address. Budgetarypressures have led to the proliferation of small levies aimed at raising additional revenues, which havediverted attention away from comprehensive improvements to core taxes. Summary of Recommendations These challenges are not insurmountable.Developing a medium-term agenda for tax policy reformcan break the cycle of piecemeal decisions by establishing clear objectives and ensuring that reformmeasures are appropriately prioritized and sequenced to meet set revenue targets. A medium-termstrategy recognizes the benefits of implementing reforms incrementally over several years, whilecon