流动秀：空头即多头，多头即空头

Short = Long, Long = Short Scores on the Doors: oil 41.1%, commod 26.9%, gold 17.0%, int’l stocks 4.5%, govtbonds 0.8%, IG 0.8%, US$ 0.7%, HY 0.6%, cash 0.6%, SPX -0.2%, bitcoin -18.7% YTD. 06 March 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Korea government backstopping a stock market that's doubled in past 12months, tells you moral hazard bid intact, Asian & Gen Z retail froth ain't going away.”1 The Biggest Picture: US politics says March de-escalation of Iran war; Trump approvalon economy (40%) & inflation (36%) back at lows (Chart 2), must reverse 45% jump inUS oil prices, 15% jump in gasoline prices; but recovery in Trump approval for midtermsneeded for Q2 upside…bulls want“populist capitalism”not“populist socialism”. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of theTape: de-escalation (+ Trump-Xi trade deal) = sell oil $90/bbl, sell US$ >100DXY, buy 30-year UST @ 5% + risk troughs March; no new equity highs without bear Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com The Price is Right: Iran escalation (Iran/Israel play endgame/US all-in to secure oilsupply to power US AI supremacy)…asset allocation shifts to beneficiaries of extendedconflict…oil, US$, US tech, global defense at expense of oil importers with minimalenergy equity exposure (Korea, Japan, Europe–Chart 4)…biggest threat to Japan & Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any other More on page 2… Weekly flows: $19.7bn to bonds, $11.5bn to stocks, $5.6bn to cash, $1.9bn to crypto,$1.8bn from gold. Flows to Know: •Gold: largest outflow ($1.8bn) since Oct’25; •Bank loans: largest outflow ($0.9bn) in 3 months…but level of outflows nowherenear systemic event capitulation of 2018 and 2020 (Chart 12); •EM: inflow ($12.6bn) to EM debt + equities (Chart 15)…we see no capitulation inEM exposure; •US equities: largest outflow ($13.9bn) in 6 weeks; Japan equities: largest inflow ($4.2bn) since Oct’25; •Korea equities: massive volatility…record daily inflow on March 2nd($6.1bn)followed by record outflow March 4th($4.7bn–Chart 16); •Energy: record weekly inflow ($7.0bn–Chart 13)…investors capitulating into sector; •Financials: biggest 4-week outflow since April’25 ($4.7bn–Chart 14). BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…64.4% stocks, 17.9% bonds, 10.5% cash; privateclient equity ETF buying on rise (strongest 4-weeks since Dec’25); GWIM buying Japan,EM debt, muni bond ETFs past 4-weeks, selling bank loan, staples, precious metal ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: stays at 9.2, i.e. remains in excess bull territory; bullishinflows to HY bonds and EM debt offset this week by weaker credit markets (widerspreads) and more bearish hedge fund positioning (via S&P 500 shorts and VIX longs); On Payrolls:“goldilocks”Feb US services PMI (56) consistent with around 15% EPSgrowth (Chart 5); Feb payrolls of >100k, AHE 0.2% = goldilocks bullish for stocks &credit, Feb payrolls <25k, AHE 0.4% = stagflation bearish. On Corrections: corrections caused by exogenous shocks at time of excess bullishnesstypically end once: 1) the“oversold”trough (software, MAGS, private credit, bank loans, bitcoin), 2) the“overbought”sold (gold, semis, metals, EM, Europe, banks–seeFeb'26Global FMS& Chart 6), 3) the“safe havens”lose bid (oil & US dollar); price action hints1 & 2 starting to happen, but oil & dollar needed to give all-clear; don’t expect bigtrading upside from here given yet to see proper price flush lower (e.g., SPX <6600),positioning still excess bullish, no policy panic (bar Korea); for us, key to watch is USdollar, best global liquidity barometer…decisive DXY index break higher >100 =“peak liquidity”theme deepening Dec peak in global central bank cuts (Chart 7), pricing out’26rate cuts (probability of June 17thFed cut was 100% Jan 1st, now 37%), yield curve flattening & potential inflationary oil shock. On Credit Events: good news…IGV software peaked Sep 23rdwhen Nvidia announced cards,”$30bn financing might be last; any sign deceleration of exponential AI capexgrowth = best catalyst to reverse“short tech bonds”trade (led by Oracle CDS spreads–Chart 8) and“long SOX-short IGV”trade (“AI awe>AI poor”) trade; trough software =trough private credit & bank loans…crucial IGV holds $80 & BKLN holds $20 Feb lows(bank loans close to“credit event”territory earlier this week–Chart 9). 2020s: we say 2020s = inflationary boom not stagflationary bust; political populism(note recent UK electoral shift from established to insurgent parties–Chart 10), reversalof globalization via tariffs/immigration, fiscal excess, Fed acquiescence, asset/wealthinflat