2024年6月机械和工程行业趋势

Contractionscontinue in Europe Global overview In the Eurozone and the US, tighterfinancing conditions and increasedborrowing costs have had negative effect on The ongoing shift towards electric vehicleswill lead to changes in machinery supply tothe automotive sector, with more emphasis Only modest production growth in 2024,sustained by the Asia Pacific region. We expect global mechanical engineeringoutput to increase by 0.5% in 2024.This modest expansion is mainly due togrowth in Asia Pacific, while activity in NorthAmerica and Europe is subdued. Apart from However, there are signs that activity isbottoming out in Europe and the US. Weexpect global mechanical engineeringproduction to rebound by 5.1% in 2025, Across all regions, we expect sector growthto decelerate in the long-term. This mainlyaffects Asia Pacific, where China’s pivot to a Industry trendsMachines/Engineering Strengths and growth drivers Economic cycle.Many machinery segments depend on demand High entry barriers.blished players are able to take advantageof the need for major investment in technology to deliver new Capital-intensity.Machinery businesses often face largeinvestments and R&D expenditures in order to provide tailor-made Automation.Many industries are increasingly using processautomation and industrial robots, which should stimulate demand Commodity price volatility.The sector is highly susceptible tothe price developments and availability of input materials like Technological advances.D printing, AI, IIoT (Industrial Internetof Things) and big data analytics are increasingly used inmanufacturing. Businesses are learning how to take advantage Machines/Engineering outlookAmericas Canada USA Machinery demand affected by car Looser monetary policy should help to trigger After a 2% contraction in 2023, we expectUS mechanical engineering output toshrink again in 2024, by 0.7%. The mainreason is the timetable for interest cutsby the Federal Reserve has been pushedback. The tighter lending conditions havecreated a spillover-effect of reduced business We expect mechanical engineering growthto slow down from 7% in 2023 to 1% thisyear, as adverse economic conditions,including higher interest rates, weigh onbusiness spending. Machinery demandfrom automotive is affected by extended car FairThe credit risk situation in thesector is average / businessperformance in the sectoris stable. The credit risk in the sectoris relatively high / businessperformance in the sectoris below its long-term trend. The credit risk in the sector ispoor / business performancein the sector is weak compared Construction activity is decreasing amidweaker new housing investment and lowerinfrastructure spending. However, as of Q4of 2024 a rebound is expected to start, due tolooser monetary policy. In 2025 mechanical We expect US mechanical engineering outputto rebound 3.7% in 2025, as macroeconomicfactors become more favourable. Disinflationshould allow the Federal Reserve to startmonetary easing in H2 of 2024, which willhelp to increase investment in machinery, In the mid to long-term, demand forautomation, digitalisation, and sustainableproduction solutions in manufacturing shouldsupport machinery demand. New technologies Machines/Engineering outlookAsia Pacific Japan China Downturn triggered by woes in the Robust growth, but issues in somemachinery segments We expect Chinese mechanical engineeringoutput to increase by 4.1% in 2024 and by6.2% in 2025. Growth is supported by fiscalexpansion for the manufacturing sectorto grow production capacity, and a loose After a 7.9% contraction in Japanesemechanical engineering production lastyear, we expect another decrease of 4.4%in 2024. The main reason for the declinethis year is a 16% output contraction in The whole mechanical engineering sectoris affected by weaker capital expenditure.Despite the Bank of Japan’s accommodativemonetary policy, investments have been However, the property sector is still plaguedby weak buyer demand for new homesand worsening financing difficultiesaffecting developers. As a result, productionof construction machinery is forecastto contract by more than 19% this year.Additionally, private investment in machinesis affected by low confidence, the issues in GoodThe credit risk situation in thesector is benign / businessperformance in the sectoris above its long-term trend. Domestic construction activity, whichaccounts for 13% of engineering demand, isslowing down, leading to a 5.7% decrease inconstruction-related machinery productionin 2024. However, demand from the ICT FairThe credit risk situation in thesector is average / businessperformance in the sectoris stable. The credit risk in the sectoris relatively high / businessperformance in the sector The credit risk in the sector ispoor / business performancein the sector is weak compared In the mid and long-term we expect Chineseannual mechanical engineering output tostabilise between 2.5% and 3%, as econom