2024年10月美国大选

Atradius Economic Research – October 2024 Summary •The US has adopted a decidedly more protectionist trade policy since former president, Donald Trump,initiated a trade war with China (and beyond) in June 2018. Trade patterns between the US and rest ofthe world have already been transforming accordingly. China’s share of US imports has decreased from •We expect this trend to continue under the next administration as both candidates, President Trumpand Vice President Harris, also have a protectionist lean. But the more strategic, climate-oriented stanceof VP Harris would lead to more investment and trade growth for US allies, whereas blanket tariffs •China and Mexico stand to lose the most under a Trump scenario compared to Harris. Emerging Asia onthe other hand could possibly see economic benefits in the longer term due to the stronger trade Trump or Harris to chart the course Both candidates present distinct approaches totrade that reflect broader ideological divides withinthe country. Trump’s emphasis on economicnationalism and universal tariffs contrasts with themore cautious, though still protectionist, stance thatHarris is expected to continue if elected. Each pathhas implications not only for the US economy butfor global trade networks, especially in regions like The upcoming US presidential election presents acritical juncture for the future of the country's tradepolicy and, in turn, world trade. In the 2016 election,Donald Trump championed a protectionist agendathat fundamentally reshaped US trade relations,especially with China. His administration’s sweepingtariffs, particularly on steel, aluminium, and Chinese tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Europesince 2021 to allow for negotiations for thisarrangement. Retaliatory tariffs from the EU oniconic American goods such as motorcycles and Shifting winds in US trade policy Over the last decade, US trade policy has evolvedfrom a foundation of free trade agreements to oneincreasingly dominated by protectionist measures.This shift was motivated by the deepeninggeopolitical rivalry between the US and China. TheTrump administration initiated the trade war to Figure 1 Biden boosts import tariffs to protect The Trump administration instigated the trade warin 2018 when broad tariffs were imposed onChinese imports, as well as on broad steel andaluminium imports, including those from the EU.Initially aimed at addressing the US-China tradeimbalance and protecting American industries, these President Biden has accordingly continued thisprotectionist bent by not only maintaining Trump-era tariffs on China but expanding importrestrictions. The continuation of nationalistic tradepolicy reflects broader concerns over nationalsecurity and global competition. For example, theWhite House announced an increase in tariffs onselected Chinese goods considered central fornational security and the green energy transition on Trade with China already caught in The remarkable shift in US trade policy, initiated byTrump and more or less continued by Biden, hashad significant impacts on US and world trade,particularly trade between the US and China. TotalUS imports have increased 30% compared to thevolume at the onset of the trade war under Trump,but that growth is 7ppt less than it would have been The Biden administration departs from Trump-styleprotectionism in its focus on increasing trade withfriendly countries – known as ‘nearshoring’ or‘friendshoring’. US trade policy has increasinglysought to achieve broader objectives over the pastfour years, including addressing climate change andensuring supply chain resilience. One major example Figure 2 US finding new sources for Chinese imports Figure 3 Emerging Asia enjoys greatest growth in The trade war has reduced the volume of Chineseimports to the US to 80% of their June 2018 level(see figure 2). This level is roughly in line with thelowest level seen during the Trump administration – This is in line with expectations as these imports areless impacted by US restrictions and come fromcountries broadly friendly with the US. But it’s alsoimportant to note that not all of this is due toincreasing US demand: there’s also significant Imports from the rest of the world, on the otherhand, are more than 40% higher than they were inJune 2018. The level of non-Chinese imports evenstands about 5% higher than they would have been Where will US trade policy go next? How US trade develops going forward is highlyreliant on the results of the November presidentialelection. The major shifts already observed inmarket shares of the world’s largest import marketshow that US trade policy has significant effects for •North America maintains the largest share of USimports, increasing 3 percentage points (ppt) to29% of total imports since June 2018. Mexico in •Imports from the EU have increased 2ppt, nowsurpassing China’s market share. Imports in thechemicals and commodities industries have led Donald Trump: aggressive