经济展望-2024年12月

Table of Contents Executive Summary Global macroeconomic environment 1.1 After the landing1.2 Underwhelming growth1.3 Trump election triggers mild assumptions adjustment1.4 Tariff anticipation ups global trade1.5 Desynchronising commodity markets1.6 Inflation reaching central bank targets1.7 Unfolding monetary policy divergence1.8 Fiscal policy diverges Advanced economies’ outlook 2.1 Advanced economies’ outlook2.2 US resilience in the face of policy uncertainty2.3 Eurozone: mild recovery in 20252.4 UK: new government aims to boost much-needed investment2.5 Advanced Asia: cautiously bright prospects Emerging market economies’ outlook 3.1 Diverging prospects for EMEs313.2 China: growth hindered by structural performance issues313.3 India: growth set to remain steady323.4 Brazil: risks to 2025 outlook mount further32 Appendix: macroeconomic tables Executive Summary The global economy remains on track for soft landing, with inflationdecreasing without triggering a recession.Global growth is expected toremain modest, with projections of 2.8% for 2025 and 2.9% for 2026. The UScontinues to demonstrate strong GDP performance, bolstered by factors such Inflation has continued to move towards central bank targets.Central banks'monetary tightening has successfully reduced inflation without causing arecession in major advanced economies. We anticipate this 'soft landing' tocontinue, with inflation approaching the 2% target in the eurozone and US by We forecast global trade growth to be 1.8% in 2024, slightly down from anearlier estimate.For 2025, trade growth is expected to rise to 3.3%. Thisupward revision is driven by businesses front-loading activities in anticipationof new tariffs. However, trade growth is likely to fall below 3% in 2026 as the Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.9% in 2025, an upwardrevision.The US economy is showing resilience despite policy uncertainty,with inflation easing and the central bank starting its monetary easingprocess. The anticipated policy changes from the incoming Trump The outlook for emerging market economies (EMEs) is on average strongerthan that for advanced economies, but it remains weak by historicalstandards.We anticipate GDP growth to moderate at 4.0% in 2025 and 3.9%in 2026. This year, many EMEs have experienced a reduction in inflation rates. We have identified a more confrontational US administration as the primarydownside risk to our baseline forecast. In this 'full-blown Trump' scenario, thenew administration is expected to implement major policy changes in the Global the money could only partially be spent during lockdowns,savings accumulated. These were gradually spent after thepandemic. When inflation spiked after the Russian invasionin 2022, governments again stepped in to support theeconomy. In the Eurozone subsidies were provided,mitigating the impact of inflation, especially energy inflation,largely for consumers. Then, governments did not stop withintervention after the pandemic and the Russian invasion.Very significant government programmes, aiming at thesupply side, were set up to help economies transition, inparticular towards clean energy and digitisation. In the USthe Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act were 1.1 After the landing In our July Economic Outlook, we made the case for a softlanding of the global economy, as the title of that documentsuggested. Landing softly means that inflation is broughtdown to or at least towards central bank target levelswithout causing a recession. That was the process we saw Indeed, in most economies, especially in the advanced ones,inflation has continued its downward trajectory while GDPgrowth has remained resilient. Headline inflation in the USnow stands at 2.1%, in the Eurozone at 2%, with estimatedGDP growth rates for 2024 at 2.4% and 0.8% respectively.The Eurozone growth is muted. But it remains at a Figure 1.1 Appreciative equity markets What is behind this remarkable development in the US andEurozone? We need to point out that it is not remarkablethat inflation, as such, is brought down. The central bankshave an arsenal of monetary policy tools at their disposal.They just must employ these, particularly interest rate hikesand, to a lesser extent, quantitative tightening. That willusually do the trick for inflation, as demand comes down.Firms will spend less as financing cost are higher andconsumers spend less as they will get an incentive to save,rather than spend. Lower spending then translates into a So what are these other factors? First, there has been anextension of the supply of labour in the US as well as otheradvanced economies, including those of the Eurozone. Thisoccurred via immigration, which was ample, reportedly morethan one million in the US in 2023 alone. This extended thesupply of labour, or an extension of the workforce. Moreover,the degree of participation within the workforce went up aswell. These two factors simply brought more hands on dec