2025年2月运输和物流行业趋势

Industry trends – Transportation and logistics Solid sector growthexpected, but US Global overview benefitting from high demand for time-sensitive delivery of Growth supported by manufacturing expansion and higherconsumer demand The potential impact of US import tariffs on sector growth In 2025 we expect global transportation and logistics outputto grow by 4.1%, followed by a 3.7% increase in 2026. Growth issupported by higher business investments and manufacturing inthe Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe. Additionally, demand fortrade-intensive consumer durables should increase due to higherhousehold purchasing power and lower financing costs. Oil and In order to improve their resilience in a more adversegeopolitical environment, many businesses that once focusedon just-in-time production have started to keep greater levelsof inventory as a safety buffer. This should lead to increasing The new US administration initiated tariffs of 25% on importsfrom Mexico and Canada, but granted both a 30-days reprieveon February 3rd. On China, additional tariffs of 10% have beenimposed, and 25% tariffs on all US steel and aluminium imports.Additionally, President Trump has tasked his economic teamwith devising plans for reciprocal tariffs on every country thattaxes US imports. It is currently difficult to estimate the extent Maritime shipping costs remain elevated Among subsectors, land transport output is forecast to grow 3.7%this year, and both air and water transport are expected to increaseby about 6% (see chart overleaf). Prices for maritime shippingalong key routes have substantially increased due to geopolitical Industry trendsTransportation and logistics Constraints and downside risks Oil price volatility.High fuel prices negatively affect margins oftransport and logistics businesses across all segments. Growth in global trade.Despite some reshoring, global tradeis projected to continue growing, supporting demand for both Sustainability.Growing demand for green transport will requiresignificant investment in both the mid-term and long-term.This will create opportunities, but also pose a risk for companiesunable or unwilling to adapt. If passed on to consumers, increased New technologies.Increasing investment in warehousedigitalisation, robotics, and data is expected to increase supplychain efficiency and reduce costs. Investment in smart tech will Geopolitical risks.The maritime subsector relies heavily onfreedom of navigation. Disruptions could be caused by rising Growth in ecommerce and digitalisation.This will supportdemand for courier services and warehousing facilities. Staff shortages and labour disputes.In some segments like roadtransport this could impact activity and growth, adding upwards AmericasTransportation and logistics outlook USA Trucks are the key transport mode forgoods in the US. We expect a recoveryin truck tonnage in 2025 after a ratherdisappointing performance in 2024and in 2023, due to stronger consumerdemand and ongoing retail sales growth.However, a restrictive immigrationpolicy could exacerbate the existing Robust private consumption drives We expect the US transportation andlogistics industry to grow by 2.7% in 2025and by 3.2% in 2026. Land and watertransport output is expected to grow2.4% and 4.9% respectively this year, andair transport is set to increase 4%. Whiletransportation and logistics businessesbenefit from decreasing energy costs, Compared to Europe, overseas tradewith the US is less vulnerable to shippingdisruptions in the Red Sea. That said,prices for container freight shippingfrom Asia to the US have increased, Private consumption in the US remainsrobust, growing by 2.9% annually in 2025and 2026, supported by lower interestrates and higher wages. Solid householdspending supports demand for shipping ofdurable and non-durable consumer goods.Business investment will increase with In the mid-term, governmentinvestment in infrastructureimprovement will benefit the sectorby promoting greater supply Asia PacificTransportation and logistics outlook India China Expanding manufacturing capacitysupports sector growth Healthy growth outlook, but US tariffspose a downside risk Chinese transportation and logistics outputis forecast to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and by4.8% in 2026. This is mainly due to ongoingglobal demand for Chinese goods. For theChinese transportation sector, the effectof the additional 10% US tariffs on Chineseexports and the corresponding retaliatory Indian transportation and logistics outputis forecast to grow by 11.1% in 2025 andby 7.5% in 2026. The government hasintroduced initiatives try to boost themanufacturing sector by improving thebusiness environment and enhancinglogistics infrastructure. This includesthe “Make in India” campaign whichpromotes the country as a manufacturinghub for both domestic and international We expect the sector will benefit fromgovernment support for businesses andinvestment in infrastructure (domestic a