2025年12月运输和物流行业趋势

Industry growthslows as global tradeapplies the brakes Global overview Regarding prices, decreasing or stagnating demand are leading tolower freight costs. That said, oil and fuel prices fell in recent months,and we expect a further decrease in oil prices in 2026. This shouldease cost pressures for transport and logistic businesses. A stagnation in global trade growth will affect 2026 demand fortransport/logistics At the beginning of this year, we anticipated global transportationand logistics output to increase by 4.3% in 2025 and by 3.7% in2026. However, we have now revised this forecast downwards, to2.5% and 2.4% respectively, as we expect the pace of trade growthto ease significantly in the last months of 2025 and through 2026.This contrasts with the earlier months of the year where front-loading ahead of trade war restrictions directly boosted globaltrade growth, while AI-related investment increased the trade ingoods related to data centre infrastructure and other AI equipment. In order to improve their supply chain resiliency, industries andbusinesses that have been focused on just-in-time production maykeep greater levels of inventory as a safety buffer. As a result, weexpect greater demand for warehouse storage facilities in order tostore inventory, avoid delays, and reduce the impact of supply chaindisruptions. At the same time the air freight segment is benefittingfrom high demand for time-sensitive delivery of goods and growingecommerce. Tariffs are increasingly weighing on trade activity, and uncertaintydrags on companies’ investments. This has an impact on all stagesof the goods economy. Less production and transport of rawand intermediate goods for manufacturing and less shipment ofgoods from factories to consumers will inevitably spill over to thefreight-focused transport sector segments, like trucking and oceanfreight. Freight rates have weakened, particularly on transpacificroutes. US imports from China have declined following tariffs andearlier trade surges. Global container demand in 2026 is facinguncertainties. Demand for passenger transport is remaining strong, despite theongoing trade disputes. However, US demand for travel servicesoverseas may see a larger-than-average decrease if rising inflationeats into disposable incomes. Over the long term, we expect emerging markets in Asia Pacific,Africa, and South America to drive global transportation andlogistics growth. This is particularly true for China and India,two of the world’s most populous countries that are investingheavily in infrastructure and transport networks. Industry trendsTransportation and logistics output Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Growth in global trade.Despite the current tariff issues, globaltrade is projected to continue growing in the coming years,supporting demand for freight and passenger transport in themid-term and long-term. Oil price volatility.High fuel prices negatively affect margins oftransport and logistics businesses across all segments. Sustainability.Demand for green transport requires significantinvestment in both the mid-term and long-term. This will createopportunities, but also poses a risk for companies unable orunwilling to adapt. If passed on to consumers, increased costsin the form of new regulations or carbon taxes are likely tonegatively impact sector demand. New technologies.Increasing investment in warehousedigitalisation, robotics, and data is expected to increase supplychain efficiency and reduce costs. Investment in smart tech willhelp transport businesses improve transparency and flexibility. Geopolitical risks.The maritime subsector relies heavily onfreedom of navigation. Disruptions could be caused by risingtensions or armed conflicts (e.g., in the Red Sea, the Taiwan straitor in the South China Sea). Growth in ecommerce and digitalisation.This will supportdemand for courier services and warehousing facilities. Staff shortages and labour disputes.In some segments like roadtransport this could impact activity and growth, adding upwardspressure on labour costs. AmericasTransportation and logistics outlook USA framework. At the same time oversupplyin trucking persists after Covid-eracapacity expansion, constraining pricingand utilisation rates. Labour shortagesare contributing to delays and risingcost, and the restrictive immigrationpolicy could exacerbate this issue. The UStrucking market is undergoing a difficultrebalancing, with smaller carriers exitingat an accelerating pace as volumes remainbelow seasonal expectations. More challenges ahead The US transportation and logisticsindustry is navigating a complexenvironment. Consumer confidence iscurrently declining, and the labour marketappears to be cooling off. Both couldaffect demand for shipping of durableand non-durable consumer goods. At thesame time the sector faces significantchallenges from trade distribution, labourshortages, and geopolitical instability.After growing 1.8%