能源展望-2025年4月

Atradius Energy Outlook Hydrocarbon statesresilient to shifting Table of Contents Executive summary 1. Energy mix: a new sense of realism 1.1 Another record year1.2 Realism, expectations and hope1.3 Lower energy intensity1.4 Electrification taking off1.5 Phasing out fossil energy1.6 Government, investments and technology 2.Oil market outlook: steady as she goes 2.1 Spare capacity helps keep markets resilient2.2 Demand for oil to peak and plateau in coming decade2.3 Oil supply is robust2.4 Steady baseline price outlook with high downside risk under NZE scenario 3.Gas market outlook: fragile equilibrium 3.1 Relative stabilisation of gas prices3.2 Gas demand peaks around 20303.3 Supply: Middle East expands its position3.4 Gas trade: LNG making further inroads3.5 Gas prices decline amid strong LNG growth 4.Country risk: hydrocarbon states resilient to shifting energy mix 16 4.1 Fuel dependency hydrocarbon states is gradually declining4.2 Diversification of fiscal revenues is the biggest challenge4.3 Financial weaknesses make some countries vulnerable to oil and gas price shocks 184.4 Limited country risk impact in STEPS4.5 Fossil fuel suppliers of last resort4.6 Conclusion Executive summary 1. Energy mix: a new sense of realism In this outlook we observe that the energy transition is facing considerable headwinds, while climate change continues toimpose itself, with another record year of global temperatures in 2024.The COP29 in Baku failed to come up with convincing results regarding financing of the energy transition in the emergingand developing countries. The US has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. Moreover, the global focus is shifting towards 2. Oil market outlook: steady as she goes Under this more conservative outlook for climate-related policy, the decline in demand for oil beyond the peak this decadewill be much more gradual. Slowing global demand will continue to be met by increased production in the Americas, Some supply overhang and weaker economic conditions will put downward pressure on oil prices in the short term, but oilprices will likely stay around current levels in real terms as demand steadies and supply is sufficient. While the risk of supplydisruptions persists which would cause short-run spikes, we believe the risk of downward price pressure is increasing. This is 3. Gas market outlook: fragile equilibrium Three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global gas markets have regained a fragile equilibrium.In our baseline scenario demand reaches a maximum level around 2030 and then declines very slightly through to 2050.Under more ambitious climate targets, demand is assumed to have already peaked and shows an even faster decline.Asia (especially China and India) and the Middle East remain the main sources of demand growth in the coming decades, The baseline scenario sees an increase of gas production between 2024 and 2035. The United States maintains its positionas the world’s largest natural gas producing country through to 2050. The Middle East sees the largest growth in supply,while Russian gas production struggles to make a significant recovery from its low point in 2023. We now anticipate a 4. Country risk implications: hydrocarbon exporters resilient to shifting energy mix Over the medium term to 2034, the majority of fossil fuel exporting emerging market economies will be able to cope withthe energy transition. While they remain largely dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, they generally have enough financial However, several hydrocarbon states – such as Iraq, Algeria and Gabon – that already have wide budget deficits at thecurrent oil price and have shown little appetite for fiscal reform are on a slippery slope. This emphasizes the importance for Only in the longer term, in a net zero scenario wherein oil prices are ultra-low, will more fossil fuel exporting emergingmarket economies find themselves in trouble. The best positioned to become the last remaining oil and gas suppliers in themarket are those that not only have a strong financial position, but also large oil and/or gas reserves, can produce at low cost change and accelerate the energy transition. We are afraid thisis not what we are observing. The UN Climate ChangeConference in Baku (COP29) failed to resolve big questionmarks over a number of critical issues, such as the phasing outof fossil fuels and reducing methane emissions. Theagreement to support emerging and developing countrieswith USD 300 billion left many disappointed. The second 1.1 Another record year In our last Energy Outlook in April 2024, we started with areport on the record-breaking temperatures and extremeweather events during 2023. It was meant to highlight theseverity of climate change, named an existential threat. Theaverage temperature, highest on record, hit 1.48˚C above pre- Trump administration withdrew the US from the Paris As if this was not already sufficient, 2024 brutally reinforcedthe message.