2025年8月食品行业趋势

In some marketsthe indirect impact oftariffs could dampenhigher food spendingIn some marketsthe indirect impact oftariffs could dampenhigher food spending August 2025August 2025 Global overview household incomes. For the food sector this could mean thatconsumers buy goods at lower price points, reduce spending on non-essential food and drink products, and maintain rather than increasetheir consumption level. Production growth and decreasing food prices, but downsiderisks remain We expect global food production to increase by 2.4% in 2025and by 3.1% in 2026. Annual global food sales are in the samerange (see chart overleaf). Among regions, Asia Pacific is expectedto record above-average growth rates of more than 3% thisyear and 5% in 2026, while North America’s food production isforecast to grow only modestly in 2025 and 2026 (0.4% and 0.3%respectively). The slide in food commodity prices, that was set in motion after theshock of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine faded, hascontinued. Food prices decreased further quarter-on-quarter in Q1of 2025, supported by better growing conditions in South America.Due to ample supply conditions global food prices are forecast todecrease in 2025 and then stabilise in 2026. However, any escalationof the current trade disputes could have adverse effects on supplychains and raise the price of agricultural imports. Additionally,adverse weather conditions remain a downside risk as they coulddisrupt global food supply, putting upward pressure on prices. Compared to other industries, the direct impact of tariffs on thefood and beverages sector is modest, given a relatively low tradeexposure and the perishable nature of output, which makes largecross-border trade costly and less economically viable. The foodand drink industry benefits from regional self-sufficiency, althoughsome specific product categories could face vulnerabilities. In the long-term, emerging markets will lead sectoral growth.In many emerging economies populations are increasing and thesize of the middle-class is expanding. As disposable incomes rise,consumers substitute low value-added staples with higher value-added goods. However, there is an indirect impact from tariffs in the form oflower economic growth and higher inflation, affecting disposable Food and beverages Strengths and growth drivers Constraints and downside risks Margin issues.Profit margins for many food producers arestructurally thin and under pressure. Structural resilience.Demand is inelastic, due to the essentialnature of food. Susceptible to sudden crisis.Price volatility, disease and extremeweather are difficult to predict. Emerging markets growth.Disposable incomes are increasingleading to growth in higher value-added goods. Critical consumers.Consumers are increasingly demanding fulltransparency from producers. Changing consumer tastes.Consumers are increasinglydemanding foods with health benefits. New technologies.Big data solutions are helping to improveefficiency; there is also growth in scientifically engineeredingredients and products. Sustainability.Short-term investment is needed into clean energy,green supply chains, food waste reduction and eco-packaging. AmericasFood and beverages outlook Brazil USA More pressure on retailers’ margins Price competition weighs on the marginsof food businesses We expect Brazilian food output to growby 2.1% in 2025, followed by a 2.7%increase in 2026. The food and beveragemarket shows resilience despite economicheadwinds. In March 2025, Brazil’sgovernment removed import tariffs onkey food items in order to combat risingfood price inflation, which neverthelessremains elevated. Discount promotions bylarge food retailers have resulted in lowermargins for food producers. However, themid- and long-term market prospects aregood, due to rising disposable incomesand a large, young population. We expect US food and beverages outputto increase by 0.8% in 2025 and to level offnext year. The market offers the advantageof a large population with high spendingpower that is also younger compared topeer markets (e.g. Western Europe). Healthand wellness trends will be a major driverof sales of food and drink products. The credit risk in the sector is poor /business performance in the sector is weakcompared to its long-term trend. Despite some easing, food price inflationwill continue to put pressure on householdbudgets, which affects purchasingpatterns. Actual price levels remainhigh, especially in some essential foodcategories. In the grocery retail sector,US households still face food prices thatare almost 30% higher than pre-Covid.Consumers are seeking affordable options,and competition in the food sector isincreasingly focused on price, which iscreating margin pressure for food andbeverages producers as well as retailers.Increasing merger and acquisition activitywill put additional pressure on the marginsof smaller food businesses. Mexico Long-term outlook for the sect