宏观周报：上游上涨，中下游分化

中观总览 上游：本周上游价格上涨较多。能源化工板块受中东地缘冲突升级影响，国际油价与天然气价格大幅上升。化工品如苯乙烯、涤纶短纤、聚酯切片等持续上行。农产品方面涨势显著。鸡蛋价格本周整体偏强，多地普涨。棕榈油、豆油、菜油现货基差走强，受斋月期间产量下滑及外部局势支撑。 中游：本周中游制造业生产分化。受益于海外订单维持高景气，汽车半钢胎、涤纶长丝及PTA开工率均显著回升至高位。道路沥青、建筑工程开工率仍处三年间中位，未有改善迹象。 下游：本周下游消费市场表现分化。地产方面，重点监控城市中多数城市商品房成交继续回升，新房市场表现良好但三线城市成交同比有所下滑。地产后周期的家电、家居等消费需求小幅改善。汽车零售表现偏弱，乘用车零售量环比下滑。 细分行业 大农业：棕榈油、棉花、玉米价格大幅上行；苹果、棉花持续去库。 能源：国际原油、液化天然气价格大幅上行。 采矿业：黑色价格方面纯碱上行，其余黑色商品持稳。黑色库存方面，炼焦煤、螺纹和焦炭小幅上行；有色价格方面集体小幅震荡。有色库存方面，铅和铜小幅下行，铝小幅上行。 化工：聚乙烯、苯乙烯、PTA价格大幅上行；尿素和PVC库存回落。 基建：混凝土、水泥价格回落；混凝土产能利用率，水泥供给量回落。 地产：本期重点监控城市中，福州、北京、广州、南京、深圳等多地商品房成交量上升。三线城市成交量小幅回落。 物流运输：美西航线、欧洲航线指数回落。国内航班与国际航班班次大幅回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................7四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................7图12：行业信用利差..............................................................