美国“互惠”关税：宣布贸易战

US ‘reciprocal’ tariffs: Trade war is declared Paris,April4th, 2025:OnApril 2nd,or the so-calledLiberation Day, President DonaldTrump announced a drastic increase intariffson all trading partners: at least 10% for allcountries,and much higher for some. Whether or not these measures remain inforce remains an open question, butthey arealready an unprecedented shock to the A historic turn towards protectionism The imposition of so-called ‘reciprocal’tariffsof at least 10%, which will come into force thisSaturdayApril 5th, marks a dramatic escalation of US trade policy, even surpassing theworst-case scenarios and campaign promises. Many other trading partners, such as China(34%), the European Union (20%) and Japan (24%), will face even higher tariffs fromApril 9th.Mexico and Canada are among the few countries to escape these ‘reciprocal’tariffs, A break in world trade According to our economists' estimates, this increase would bring the average effectivetariffrate to 26.2% (compared to 2.3% in 2024), its highest level in over a century. It is also These announcements represent a break with multilateral trade standards (including WTOrules) and threaten totrigger an escalatory spiral of protectionist measures. They also Differentiated impactsacross regions Asianeconomies(Vietnam,Cambodia,Taiwan,Malaysia and Thailand)-all highlydependent on US trade-will be the most affected and will see their exports heavily taxed.SomeAfrican(Lesotho,Madagascar)and Central American(Nicaragua,Honduras) Among majoreconomies, South Korea, Japan, China and India are expected to be hit hard.All EU Member States will face tariffs of 20%, with Germany and Italy particularly exposed. Prospect of trade escalation It will be difficult to find afavorableoutcome in the short term. While the EU and China,among others, have already indicated their willingness to retaliate by taxing products In the medium term, the reconfiguration of trade flows will affect all economies: Asianexporters, for example, will be forced to seek newopportunities, possibly intensifying A weakened US economy These tariffs will hit an American economy that was already showing signs of weakening,with household consumption at a low ebb at the beginning of 2025 (only 0.1% in February,after a contraction in January). The rise in costs resulting from the increasein import ratescould also significantly slow down investment decisions for companies and purchasingdecisions for consumers. The impact on inflation, projectedto average of 2.8% in 2025 Objectives with uncertain results Although the Trump administration's objectives-rebalancing trade, relocating production,generating tax revenues and creating a bargaining lever-are politically attractive, it is notcertain that tariffs can help achieve these objectives effectively. Trade deficits dependmainly on macroeconomic factors, not import taxes. Moreover, tariffs do not remove otherstructural barriers, such aslaborcosts and skills, which are necessary for relocation. In 2024, COFACEPRESS OFFICE Adrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15Malcolm Biiga: +33 6 47 09 92 66adrien.billet@coface.comLucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for more than 75 years, Coface helpscompanies grow and navigate in an uncertain and volatile environment.Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with afull range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Risk