实业新材料有望重估，化工工程不断突破

中国化学(601117)[Table_Industry]建筑工程业/工业 本报告导读： 中国化学己二腈等多品类受益化工景气改善，实业新材料资产有望重估。煤化工工程国际领先，基础化工与石油化工占据较大的市场份额，海外业务不断突破。 投资要点： 中国化学是一带一路沿线化工主力军，国企改革将推动公司健康发展。 (1)公司业务遍及全球80多个国家和地区，累计境外新签合同额超1000亿美元。2025年海外新签订单1245亿元同比增长9.89%(占比30.85%)，2025H1海外业务营业收入266亿元同比增长28.75%(占比29.53%)，海外业务毛利率8.90%。(2)股权激励考核以2021年业绩为基数，2023~2025年扣非归母净利润复合增长率不低于15%。2025年若实现股权激励，对应年度扣非归母增速不低于10.03%。(3)近4年分红比例约20%，大股东增持公司股份2亿元占比0.43%，将于2026年4月11日前增持完毕。(4)2013年来机构持仓占比最高11.11%，2025H1机构持仓8.02%。 己二腈实现突破，煤化工国际领先2025.05.15前3季度利润增长稳健，实业新材料未来可期2024.11.09前8月新签订单增20%，PB0.76倍历史底部2024.09.27Q2业绩放缓，实业收入、毛利率提升2024.09.09中国化学：基本面扎实，助力尼龙66产业自主可控2024.08.25 风险提示：实业项目盈利风险，化工资本开支下行，国际化经营风险等。 目录 1.投资建议：维持中国化学增持评级，目标价13.46元.................................................................................61.1.盈利预测：维持预测2025-2027年EPS1.03/1.14/1.24元增11.0%/10.1%/8.9%·······························61.1.1.营收及毛利拆分：2025H1化学工程营收占比82.7%，毛利占比84.9%·································61.1.2.盈利预测：维持预测2025-2027年EPS1.03/1.14/1.24元增11.0%/10.1%/8.9%·························71.2.估值建议：给予目标价13.46元，对应2026年11.8倍PE·····················································91.2.1.PB0.86倍近10年历史分位24%，PE9.2倍近10年历史分位32%·······································91.2.2.根据可比公司PE和PB估值方法计算公司合理估值为13.46元·······································112.实业及新材料：己二腈等多品类新材料项目有序推进，科技成果产业化进程加快.....................................122.1.己二腈-尼龙66、己内酰胺-尼龙6、气凝胶、PBAT、POE、高端POM等多品类持续推进············122.2.己二腈-尼龙产业链：从原料自主到高端突围···································································132.2.1.己二腈突破技术封锁，尼龙66产能稳步提升·····························································132.2.2.尼龙66需求具备长期支撑，供需调整下结构升级加速·················································142.2.3.己内酰胺-尼龙6产业链：己内酰胺供应宽松，下游尚有增长空间····································162.2.4.环氧丙烷：天辰实现HPPO技术突破，打破国外垄断···················································182.2.5.中国天辰：近年营收同比增速超9%，主要产品产能利用率超80%···································192.3.气凝胶项目：大规模产业化，需求潜力巨大····································································212.3.1.采用全自动超临界干燥法，大规模产业化具备经济效益················································212.3.2.应用场景爆发，市场需求释放···············································································222.4.可降解材料PBAT：持续推进绿色转型的商业化实践·························································232.4.1.PBAT商业化实践屡传捷报，实业自主经营与EPC模式双线发力·····································232.4.2.政策驱动：限塑令下的地膜、包装材料替代需求将增长················································242.5.加速POE国产化布局，补足高端聚烯烃材料供给短板·······················································242.6.实现POM高端化国产化，突破“卡脖子”技术垄断·························································253.巩固工程主业：打造工业工程领域综合解决方案服务商...........................................................................263.1.工程建设是公司核心业务，拥有丰富项目和优异业绩························································263.2.发展现代煤化工意义重大，中国化学掌握先进技术···························································303.3.“双碳”战略推动化工产业转型升级，中国化学积极发展低碳技术········································334.海外经营能力与国企改革有望催化公司市值提升......................................................................................344.1.一带一路项目成果丰硕，近三年海外订单快速提升···························································344.2.国企改革推动公司高质量发展，股权激励提升业绩确定性···················································364.3.分红比例维持20%附近，大股东持续增持至总股本的40.68%···············································384.4.2013年以来机构持仓最高11.11%，2025H1机构持仓8.02%················································395.风险提示.................................................................................................................................................40 表目录 表1：近五年营收拆分中化学工程始终高于74%（亿元）............................................................................6表2：近五年毛利拆分中化学工程逐渐提升至84.9%（亿元）......................................................................6表3：2025年6月化学工程新签订单同比增速当年首次由负转正.................................................................7表4：主营业务分项预测中毛利率水平维持稳定...........................................................................................8表5：盈利预测管理和研发费用率上升/财务费用率下降...............................................................................9表6：中国化学估值水平处于历史较低区间................................................................................................10表7：用PE法估算出股票合理估值为13.68元............................................................................................11表8：用PB法估算出股票合理估值为13.24元............................................................................................11表9：中国化学子公司新材料项目简况.......................................................................................................12表10：当前国内已投产己二腈产能不足100万吨/年..................................................................................13表11：“十五五”政策持续向绿色工艺倾斜..............................................................................................18表12：2024年中国天辰主要产品己内酰胺、环己烷、硫酸胺、丙烯腈产能利用率均超过80%...................20表13：中国天辰除己二胺（部分自用生产尼龙66）外各主要产品产销率超80%，总销售金额持续增长.....21表14：2025年已投产POE装置35万吨/年................................................................................................24表15：