Online retail spending growth has significantly outpaced total services spending for several months, driven by seasonal promotions and discounts, with spending during online promotions stronger than in previous years.
Online shopping appears to be the preferred form of retail therapy, partly due to the increased adoption of buy now, pay later (BNPL). While the number of BNPL users has risen slightly, the adoption rate is primarily driven by more expensive transactions like furniture or travel, rather than everyday items. Higher-income households show stronger growth in heavy BNPL usage, while light users continue to accelerate.
Another key factor supporting eCommerce expansion is the adoption of agentic AI, which can autonomously perform tasks such as product recommendations, deal comparisons, and automated purchases, enhancing efficiency and personalization. Agentic AI also improves transparency in online shopping by surfacing hidden fees, evaluating reviews, and providing real-time price comparisons.
核心观点：
- Online retail spending growth has exceeded services spending, with online penetration steadily increasing.
- Promotions like Prime Day have boosted online spending, with BNPL driving more expensive purchases.
- Agentic AI is transforming eCommerce by automating shopping processes and improving transparency.
关键数据：
- Online retail spending growth up more than 3.5% YoY (28-day moving average), stronger since May 2025.
- Online retail penetration expanded 1.2 percentage points YoY in June.
- BNPL adoption rose by 0.8 percentage points in June 2025 compared to 2024, with transactions >$50 increasing.
- Light BNPL users (1-4 payments/month) majority in June, while extra heavy users (20+ payments/month) grew 23% YoY.
- Higher-income households show strongest growth in extra heavy BNPL usage (25.1% YoY).
研究结论：
Online shopping continues to dominate retail spending, supported by promotions, BNPL, and agentic AI. BNPL adoption is shifting toward higher-value purchases, while AI enhances shopping efficiency and transparency, making online retail more accessible and personalized.
