美国经济展望：解开弱招聘背后的力量

Economics US Economic Perspectives Disentangling the forces behind weak hiring Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 Introduction For the better part of the past two years,the US labor market has beenina fragileequilibrium. The hiring rate has fallen steadily from its record peak in late 2021,with recent readings now back to 2013 levels, a period when the unemploymentrate was above 7%. These more adverse labor market outcomes have beenavoided, however, because the layoff rate has remained historically low. Brett RyanSenior US Economist+1-212-250-6294 Justin WeidnerEconomist+1-212-469-1679 We have argued that the evolution of the hiring rate is likely to be essential for themonetary policy outlook and the results of the upcoming midterm electionsbecause low hiring explainsdownbeat consumer sentiment(seeGrowth-labordisconnect likely to drive Fed and sentiment in '26andDownbeat labor marketsentiment reflects less dynamism).For the former, if hiring reconnects withgrowth, the labor market will strengthen, and the Fed will be comfortable waitingfor progress on inflation before reducing rates again. For the latter, consumersentiment about the labor market has correlated closely with the decline in thehiring rate (and broader measures of labor market dynamism). Amy YangEconomist+1-212-250-9959 In this report, we assess five forces that could explain weak hiring trends anddiscuss the implications for the hiring outlook. Five potential forces behind the decline in hiring Excludingthebrief surge intheimmediate wake ofthe pandemic,the hiring rateclimbedto record high levels in 2021. Thisspike in hiring activity followed a periodof significantdecreasesin layoffs andincreasesinquits. Asconfidence wasgained about the economic outlook,and labor was needed to meet better-than-anticipated demand, hiring activity strengthened. However, since 2021, the hiring rate has been on a steady downtrend. Mostrecently, it has fallen to levels last observedin 2013 when the unemployment ratewas roughly three percentage points higher.Over this period, the economy washit by various historic shocks that could explainthismarked slowdown in hiringactivity. We see fivemajor macro forces that could be behind the decline in the hiring rate: 1.Fed tightening of monetary policy2.Payback from Covid hiring3.Substantial reduction in immigration flows4.AI adoption displacing workers5.Spike in trade policy uncertainty Identifying which factor can account for the decline in the hiring rate can help todisentangle supply versus demand factors in the hiring slowdown and can alsoaide our projections for future hiring.We undertake this task in the next section. Which forces matter? Our initial approach istotake a cross-sectionalcutof the data. On a sector-by-sector basis we consider the exposure of each sector to our force of interest andassess how tightly correlated it has been with the change in the hiring rates ofthose sectors. Fed tightening of monetary policy As a starting point, weconsider how muchthe Fed’s aggressive tightening cyclecontributed to the hiring rate slowdown. To calibrate this effect, we consider anestimate of the interest rate sensitivity of different sectors from the 2025 USMPFpaper (seehere). Figure2 shows a reasonably strong correlation between the interest ratesensitivity of the sector and the decline in the hiring raterelative to pre-Covid(i.e.,2019). For example, sectors that are highly interest rate sensitive, such asconstruction, have experienced a significantly larger reduction in hiring than low-interest sensitive sectors like education and health care services.The correlationis lower for the decline since the peak in 2021, which is not too surprising as thatpeak was clearly driven by other factors. As such, our main focus is on the changesincethe “normal” pre-Covid conditions, and it appears that the Fed’s tighteningcould be an important factor. Payback from Covid hiring To investigate how much of the decline in hiring rates is simply payback from thesurge in hiring that occurred in the wake of the pandemic, we consider therelationship between the sectoral employment levels relative toa pre-Covidtrendat end 2021 and the decline in the hiring rate relative to 2019.Our interest hereis whether sectorsthat over-hired and hademployment levels (well) above trendexperienced more significant declines in hiring, and vice versa. As shown clearly in the charts, there is very little relationship between the extentof over/under hiring as of the peak labor marketatend 2021 and the decline inthe hiring rate relative to 2019.There is similarly very little relationshipwhenbenchmarking the decline in the hiring rate to 2021. As such, we conclude thatpayback from pandemic hiring practices is not a key factorin the aggregate. Substantial reduction in immigration flows To assess this channel, we consider the relationship between the foreign-bornworker share by sector in 2019 and the change in the hirin