通胀监测：石油冲击将加速再通胀

Deyun Ou China's CPI inflation rose by 1.3% YoY, showing a continued recovery trend on top ofseasonal effects. Core CPI reached a 7-year high of 1.8% YoY, while food CPI followedseasonal trends at 1.7% YoY, and energy prices remained largely stable. The PPIfurther rebounded to -0.9% YoY, with a second consecutive month of 0.4% MoMgrowth. PPI projection is raised to 0.8% from previously 0.2%; CPI forecast remainsunchanged at 1.5%. We also recognize upside risk if if global energy shortagespersist. Economist+852-2203 6166 Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139 China's CPI inflation rose by 1.3% YoY, surpassing both market expectations(0.9%) and our forecast (1.1%).On a MoM basis, it climbed by 1.0%, marking thehighest growth since January 2020. This suggested a continued recovery trend asexpected: Combining the first two months, CPI increased by 0.75%, showingfurther improvement from Q3 and Q4. This positive trend was broad-based, withfood CPI and consumer goods prices turning positive, while core CPI and servicesprices grew steadily. Core CPI reached 1.8% YoY, its highest level in seven years.This was even morepronounced on a MoM basis, hitting a historical high of 0.7%. Services CPIincreased by 1.6% YoY, driven by recent local government initiatives to boostservices consumption. Consumer goods CPI edged up by 1.1% YoY, a three-yearhigh, supported by trade-in subsidies. A price hike in memory chips may have alsocontributed, as communication devices prices reached a five-year high of 1.9% YoY,up by 2ppts from the trough. Food CPI followed seasonal patterns, growing by 1.7% YoY and 1.9% MoM.Itaveraged 0.5% growth in the first two months, an improvement from last Q4 (0.4%)but lower than December (1.1%). Recent global oil price increase has yet translatedinto CPI increase, that energy prices still dragged down overall CPI by 0.19ppt. Asdomestic gasoline prices are set for a hike on March 9 and pass-through effects willgradually emerge, we anticipate the oil impact on China's CPI will surface over thecoming months. PPI further rebounded to -0.9% YoY from -1.4%.This marked the secondconsecutive month of 0.4% MoM growth. Three factors likely contributed to thisimprovement: ongoing anti-involution efforts, global energy price increases fromthe Iran crisis, and a rebound in communication devices prices amid the AI boom. We are now more optimistic on inflation outlook.PPI projection is raised to 0.8% 9 March 2026China Macro from previously 0.2%; CPI forecast remains unchanged at 1.5%. We also recognizeupside risk if if global energy shortages persist. Source : Deutsche Bank Research, NBS Source : Deutsche Bank Research, NBS Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s). In addition, theundersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or viewin this report. Yi Xiong. 9 March 2026China Macro Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively 'DeutscheBank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to third-party websites in thisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracy or security controls of those websites. If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in this report, oris included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Bank may act asprincipal for its own account or as agent for another person. Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for its own accountor with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others within Deutsche Bank,including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with tho