中华人民共和国：结构化风险评估方法

PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Structured Approaches to Risk Assessment SEPTEMBER 2025 Prepared ByCindy Negus, David Hadwick, Maureen Kidd, Vance Smith Fiscal Affairs Department High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportFiscal Affairs Department PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINAStructured Approaches to Risk AssessmentPrepared by Cindy Negus, David Hadwick, Maureen Kidd, Vance Smith TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of theassistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives,findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a technical assistance mission to thePeople's Republic of China to enhance risk assessment methodologies within the State TaxationAdministration (STA). The project aimed to improve compliance and efficiency through structuredapproaches, leveraging big data and artificial intelligence. Key findings highlighted the need forsegmentation of taxpayer populations and strengthening governance and accountability frameworks.Recommendations included implementing a systematic risk assessment approach and enhancing datasharing capabilities across provinces. Keywords: Compliance Risk Management, Tax Administration, Reform The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Background 1.In response to a request from the State Taxation Administration (STA) of the People’s Republic ofChina, a capacity development mission of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Fiscal AffairsDepartment (FAD) visited Yangzhou, and Beijing China during the period May 19-29, 2025, to advise onrisk assessment approaches. 2.In recent years, the STA has made notable progress in updating its operations, especially byembracing digital technologies. This shift aligns with the changes in the country's tax laws andregulations, leading to a more transparent and efficient system that emphasizes the use of advancedanalytics. A crucial aspect of this initiative involves applying data analytics to enhance risk assessmentcapabilities, ultimately aiming to boost compliance and lower compliance costs. 3.To enhance these efforts, the mission team provided guidance on improving risk assessmentcapabilities for the Tax Big Data Risk Management Bureau. A series of lectures and technical discussionsexplored essential areas such as the compliance risk management framework (CRM), organization andgovernance arrangements, using third-party data, and harnessing big data and artificial intelligence (AI).The discussions also highlighted the significance of intelligence-driven risk assessment, focusing onpopulation segmentation, risk prioritization, and risks prevalent in specific sectors, such as high-wealthindividuals and Value-Added-Tax (VAT), thereby ensuring a robust framework for accountability andtransparency in tax administration. 4.The report builds upon previous IMF reports and technical assistance efforts. By leveragingadvanced analytics and intelligence-driven approaches, the STA can better allocate resources, prioritizerisks, and implement targeted interventions. Summary of Findings 5.The STA’s current risk assessment model, centered around their tax risk managementframework, relies on data analytics to identify potential compliance issues. To advance this model, themission emphasized the importance of segmentation of the taxpayer population for tailoring enforcementstrategies and allocating resources effectively. By categorizing taxpayers into distinct groups based onsize, complexity, and risk profiles, the STA can enhance its operational efficiency and complianceoutcomes1. 6.Incorporating big data and artificial intelligence2into risk assessment processes is alsowarranted. These technologies would enable the STA to analyze vast amounts of data quickly andaccurately, uncovering patterns and insights that human analysis might not detect. The use of AIalgorithms can help identify emerging trends in taxpayer behavior, detect anomalies, and predict potentialnon-compliance before it occurs. This data-driven approach allows for a more nuanced understanding oftaxpayer segments and enhances the STA's ability to manage risks effectively. 7.Strengthened governance and accountability frameworks within the STA are also needed. Clearorganizational roles and robust performance measurement systems are crucial for ensuring effectivedecision-making and responsiveness to emerging risks. By adopting a comprehensive strategy thatencompasses structural and proc