干旱风险和抗灾能力评估方法：管理干旱风险的积极方法2025

A Proactive Approachto Managing Drought Risk About the Global Department for Water The World Bank Group’s Global Department for Water brings together financing, knowledge, and implementation in one platform.By combining the Bank’s global knowledge with country investments, this model generates more firepower for transformationalsolutions to help countries grow sustainably. Please visit us at www.worldbank.org/water or follow us on X: @WorldBankWater. About GWSP This publication received the support of the Global Water Security & Sanitation Partnership (GWSP). GWSP is a multidonor trustfund administered by the World Bank’s Water Global Practice and supported by Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs andTrade, Austria’s Federal Ministry of Finance, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, theNetherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Spain’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, the Swedish InternationalDevelopment Cooperation Agency, Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, the Swiss Agency for Development andCooperation, U.K. International Development, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Please visit us at www.worldbank.org/gwsp or follow us on X: @TheGwsp. Drought RiskandResilience AssessmentMethodology A Proactive Approachto Managing Drought Risk © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of TheWorld Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies inthe information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes andother information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bankconcerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the viewsexpressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposesas long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to WorldBank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax:202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: © Badre Bahaji / World Food Programme. Used with the permission of World FoodProgramme / USAID. Further permission required for reuse. Report design: Clarity Global Strategic Communications Contents Foreword Acknowledgmentsvii 1.1Droughts Are Complex and Often Ignored for Too Long21.2Many Solutions Exist for Proactive Drought Management71.3Why DRRAs Are Needed and How They Are Organized12Notes13 2. Scoping Coordination and Capacity (Block I) 2.1Scoping Coordination within the Implementing Institution152.2Scoping Coordination between Government, Donors, Development Partners,and Other Stakeholders162.3Scoping of Coordination across Government17 3. Assessing Drought Risk (Block II)18 3.1Assessing Current and Recent Drought Hazards223.2Assessing Main Trends of Future Drought Hazards303.3Assessing Current and Recent Drought Impacts343.4Assessing Country/Region Vulnerability to Drought43Notes49 4.1.Evaluating Current Drought Response574.2Evaluating Current Drought Preparedness57Notes58 B OX E S / F I G U R E SBoxes Box 1.1Drought-Related Terms Used in This Report3Box 1.2How Flash Droughts and Precipitation/Evaporationsheds Impact Water Availability5Box 1.3Nature-Based Solutions Are Integral for Integrated Drought Risk Management9Box 3.1Machine Learning-Based, Data-Driven Drought Risk Assessment for Romania20Box 3.2Drought Monitoring System in Brazil24Box 3.3Hydrometeorological Drought Hazard Characterization in Romania26Box 3.4Preparing a Drought Hazard Overview for Southern Angola with Indices Calculation and Ground Data28Box 3.5Hydrometeorological Projections for Romania31Box 3.6Hydrometeorological Drought Future Scenario Development for the Angola Climate Changeand Development Report32Box 3.7Drought Impact Assessment for Romania39Box 3.8Mu