保障能源转型的关键矿产：通过政策、投资与创新释放价值链潜力

W H I T EP A P E RS E P T E M B E R2 0 2 4 Contents Foreword3 Executive summary4 Introduction5 1Barriers to investment and innovation8 1.1Financial barriers and risks81.2Barriers in the enabling enviroment91.3Cross cutting barriers11 2Unlocks for the supply-demand imbalance12 2.1Direct and indirect financial support122.2Improvements to the enabling enviroment132.3Stakeholder collaboration15 Next steps16 Contributors18 Endnotes19 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. © 2024 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Roberto Bocca Michel Van HoeyGlobal Co-Leader,McKinsey Metals & Mining,McKinsey & Company Head of Centre for Energyand Materials; Member of theExecutive Committee, WorldEconomic Forum Securing the critical materials needed toenable the net-zero transition is fundamentalto achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.The balance between the supply and demand ofcritical materials involves managing supply chaindisruptions, long lead times between explorationand production, complex orebodies, surges incommercial needs and the concentration of supplyin some geographies. Despite recent progressin boosting the production of certain materials,supply shortages are still anticipated for manyof the critical minerals and metals necessary toproduce the lower-carbon technologies that arekey to the energy transition. This could mitigatenations’ ability to decarbonize their economies. In 2023, the World Economic Forum’s SecuringMinerals for the Energy Transition (SMET) initiativewas launched with the support of McKinsey& Company to raise awareness and encouragecollaboration on innovative and enablingsolutions that help close the critical materialssupply-demand gap. In a previous paper,SMET discussed the risks of inaction alongwith collaborative risk management solutions. This paper explores various approaches forunlocking critical materials supply. It identifiesbarriers to investment and innovation in criticalmaterials and associated solutions for addressingthem. It also highlights the need for globalmultistakeholder collaboration across the valuechain and wider ecosystem to lower barriers andenable solutions. Global leaders have acknowledged the need tosecure the critical materials supply chain, as theconsequences of inaction have the potential toextend beyond the low-carbon transition andmining ecosystem to encompass geopolitical,economic and environmental considerations.Consequently, several global and local initiativeshave been established to provide technicalassistance, promote industry standardizationandshare knowledge through research and analysis. We extend our appreciation to all SMET members,Forum leaders and experts from McKinsey &Company for their efforts and contributions to thispaper. We hope it provides valuable insights andinspires concrete actions that lead to an available,affordable and sustainable critical materials supplyand more predictable, balanced demand. Executive summary More collaboration and innovation are neededto ensure critical mineral supply meets cleanenergy demands. For the energy transition to progress at the pace andscale required, it is crucial that the materials supplychain develops in parallel. Critical minerals and theirderived products are necessary for clean energytechnologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and solarpanels and therefore are a crucial part of the energytransition. This white paper follows theSecuringMinerals for the Energy Transitionpublished last yearand its aim is to examine the barriers to enablinga just and orderly transition, and the solutions thatcould be applied to overcome these barriers. lack of supporting infrastructure and skilledlabour, and insufficient clarity in demand-sidesignals and prioritized innovation needs. –Cross-cutting barriersinclude a lack ofenvironmental, social and governance (ESG)standardization, risks related to an evolvingexternal environment, the commercial risksof scaling and deploying innovations and alack of transparency on minerals supply anddemand data. Solutions to help overcome these barriers (calledunlocks) depend on aligning stakeholder incentivesvia targeted policy initiatives and stakeholdercollaborations, such as: Demand growth for critical minerals continues toincrease. Supply has also increased but, despiterecent progress, some minerals may still face asignificant shortage.1Left unchecked, projectedsupply-demand imbalances