2025-2026年中欧和东欧投资市场
2025-2026 knightfrank.com.pl/en/research Overview of the commercial property investment market in CEE,review and outlook. MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW Poland leads EU growth, driving CEE surge past average by 2027GDP growth evolution In 2026, the Central and EasternEuropean (CEE) region is expectedto continue its economic expansion.However, performance will remainuneven across countries, reflectingdifferences in fiscal positions, exposureto external demand and externalshocks, domestic policy choices,and the pace of EU fund absorption. Poland remains the regionaland European growth leader with GDPgrowth projected at ~3.4% in 2025and accelerating to ~3.7% in 2026.The Czech Republic is expectedto deliver stable, mid-range growth,with GDP expanding by ~2.6% in 2025and ~2.9% in both 2026 and 2027,still well above the EU averageof slightly above 1%. Hungary showsa sharp rebound from a weak base,with growth rising from ~0.4% in 2025to ~2.3% in 2026, while Romaniais forecast to underperform regionalpeers in the near term, with GDPgrowth of ~0.7% in 2025 and ~1.1%in 2026, before improving to ~2.1%in 2027. Slovakia’s economyis projected to decelerate further,with growth easing from 0.8% in 2025to 0.6% in 2026, before reboundingto a stronger 2.3% in 2027. Inflation in CEE is projected to decline steadily,with most countries returning to their inflation targetsInflation evolution In summary, the CEE region in 2026is expected to experience moderateand uneven growth, continueddisinflation, and gradual policynormalisation. The region’s medium-termprospects will depend criticallyon fiscal discipline, investmentefficiency, and the abilityto navigate a complex externalenvironment. By 2027, the entire CEE region ispoised to surge ahead, with growthaccelerating well beyond the EU’smodest ~1.5% and the eurozone’s ~1.4%,overcoming earlier slowdowns. While Poland and Czechia are likelyto outperform, Slovakia, Hungary,and especially Romania face moreconstrained outlooks dueto structural and fiscal challenges. With inflation on a sustaineddownward path, central banks initiatedrate cuts, which has translated intoa noticeable improvement in lendingconditions. 2025 INVESTMENT MARKETOVERVIEW The CEE-5 investment market regainedmomentum in 2025, confirming a clearrecovery trend. Total investment volume reachedEUR 11.3 bn, representing a 34%year-on-year increase and standing 24%above the five-year average. The Czech Republic and Slovakiaemerged as the key drivers of therecovery, delivering exceptionalgrowth of 137% and 138% year-on-year,respectively. Both markets postedrecord-breaking investment volumes,with transactions totalling EUR 4.39 bnin the Czech Republic and aboveEUR 900 m in Slovakia. Poland, aftera strong rebound in the previous year,experienced a moderate correction,with investment volumes decliningby 12% to EUR 4.5 bn. Romania,meanwhile, saw investment activitysoften further, as total volumes fellby 27% to EUR 540 m. Poland and the Czech Republic dominate CEE-5 investment,accounting for 79% of total volumeInvestment volume share by country CEE’s investment rebound has beenpowered by domestic and regionalcapital, strengthening the market’sresilience to global shocks. Domesticinvestors accounted for as muchas 86% of investment volumein the Czech Republic, 37% in Romania,and a smaller, but still record high, 18%in Poland, as well as 12% in Slovakia. The CEE investment market pictureis further complemented by renewedinterest from international investors,whose presence is more evident,supported by strong economicperformance of the region, solidoccupational market fundamentals,attractive pricing compared toWestern Europe, and rental growthpotential, particularly in the officesector. market, exemplified by theacquisition of the Palladium mixeduse scheme in Prague by CzechReico for over EUR 700million,the largest single asset transactionrecorded in the region in 2025.This long anticipated disposal ofa prime regional shopping centre,complemented by office space,highlights the renewed investorappetite for dominant, high qualityretail assets with a strong andproven performance track record. The regional investment landscapeis currently shaped by Czechfunds, which deployed 3.8 bn EURdomestically and almost EUR 1.1 bn inPoland, making them the largest sourceof capital in Poland in 2025. A furtherEUR 430 m was deployed in Slovakia,reinforcing the strong regionalfootprint of Czech investors. As a result, large ticket transactionshave returned to the CEE investment Offices led investment activity in Poland, Hungary and RomaniaMixed-use dominated in the Czech Republic and SlovakiaInvestment volume by country and sector (EUR millions) In the I&L sector, the largest saleand leaseback transaction in CEE,the acquisition of Eko Okna’s assetsin Poland by the US REIT RealtyIncome for EUR253million, illustratesthe clear shift in investor demandtoward long income assets.In the office sector, a growing numberof large transactions, in
