2025年VC新兴机会（英）

VC EmergingOpportunities Early-stage investment attractivenessacross technology verticals 2025 Introduction PitchBook Data, Inc. Research In the dynamic VC investment landscape, trends in emerging technology verticals can shift quickly. Thisreport can help investors stay on top of those trends by providing them with a quantitative approach tovertical analysis that blends bottom-up and top-down perspectives. The ultimate goal is to provideinvestors with an objective way to compare risks and opportunities in early-stage startup investments(seed, Series A, and Series B) across and within verticals, thereby enabling well-informed portfolioallocation decisions. Andrew Akers, CFALead Quantitative Research Analystandrew.akers@pitchbook.com At the core of this analysis lies thePitchBookVC Exit Predictor, a machine learning (ML) model thatpredicts the probability that a startup will be acquired, go public, or not exit. This tool serves as thefoundation for our bottom-up analysis by allowing us to aggregate individual company predictions intoa vertical-level assessment, which provides valuable insights into the potential risks and returnopportunities associated with each vertical. Susan HuQuantitative Research Analystsusan.hu@pitchbook.com Our top-down analysis complements the insights provided by the VC Exit Predictor by tracking andsynthesizing important macroeconomic-level trends across verticals. Indicators in this analysis includedeal activity, valuations, published patent activity, top-ranked investor participation, andemployee growth. Note: Throughout this report, “early-stage” refers to companies raising seed, Series A, and Series Brounds. It does not follow ourtraditional definition of “early-stage VC.”Additionally, the company countsfor each vertical will differ from those in our Emerging Technology reports because we filtered forcompanies with a minimum of two VC deals, aligning with our Exit Predictor methodology. Table of contents The opportunity setPage 4Bottom-up analysisPage 9Top-down analysisPage 16Cross-vertical summaryPage 23Individual vertical analysesPage 25Appendix: Historical trends in top-down metricsPage 115 The opportunity set The emerging tech opportunity set across 11 select verticals covered by our analyst team Deal value trends Pre-money valuations Select vertical highlights SaaS AI Defense tech •From the bottom-up analysis that looks at expectedexit rates and returns, SaaS—across both enterpriseand infrastructure segments—continues to be a clearpositive standout. Early-stage SaaS companies areexpected to successfully exit at a 72.1% rate—a net 5.7percentage points higher than thesecond-ranked vertical. •Despite persistent commentary around AI exuberance, AIcontinues to demonstrate durable momentum acrosskey early-stage indicators. TTM early-stage deal valueincreased 41.2%, well above the 17.5% cross-verticalaverage, while first-time financings rose 0.4% comparedwith a 19% decline at the cross-vertical level. Althoughthe increase in first-time financings was modest, AI wasone of only a few verticals to post positive growth,alongside healthcare and fintech. •Defense tech was one of the strongest-performingverticals on a TTM early-stage basis, with deal valuegrowth ranking above the 17.5% cross-vertical average. •Valuation momentum was particularly notable. Medianearly-stage pre-money valuations increased 7.7%relative to the cross-vertical average of 28.8%, placingdefense tech among the leaders invaluation expansion. •In terms of the expected successful exit rate, SaaScompanies have been the top-ranked vertical for atleast the past eight years. •Employee growth ranked first across verticals at10.6%—well above the 6.7% cross-vertical average—asdeployment translates into operational scaling. •From an innovation standpoint, AI continues todominate. The vertical accounted for 37.2% of totalpublished patents across all verticals—by far thelargest share in the dataset. •The early-stage SaaS investment opportunity set isrelatively large, with nearly 5,476 companies currentlyeligible for a VC exit prediction. This is second onlyto AI. •From a bottom-up perspective, defense tech recordedthe second-largest YoY improvement in expectedreturns, trailing only SaaS, with aggregate expectedreturns of 24%. •On a bottom-up basis, expected exit rates and returnsplace AI in the upper tier, though with meaningfuluncertainty around early-stage durability. Returnsremain heavily influenced by a narrow group of scaledplatform leaders. •SaaS also continues to attract strong investorengagement. Top-ranked investor participationincreased 2.7% on a TTM basis, tied for second amongverticals. However, innovation signals remain moremuted. The share of published patents attributed toSaaS was 12.9%, with no significant YoY change,indicating relatively flat patent momentum comparedwith other verticals. •Top-ranked investor participation remained the highestamong verticals, at approximately 2