阿拉伯地区宏观经济展望

Macroeconomic outlook in the Arab region © 2025 United NationsAll rights reserved worldwide Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. All queries on rights and licences, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the United Nations Economicand Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), email:publications-escwa@un.org. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or areaor of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Links contained in this publication are provided for the convenience of the reader and are correct at the time of issue.The United Nations takes no responsibility for the continued accuracy of that information or for the content of anyexternal website. References have, wherever possible, been verified. Mention of commercial names and products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such asymbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. United Nations publication issued by ESCWA, United Nations House, Riad El Solh Square, P.O. Box: 11–8575, Beirut,Lebanon. Website:www.unescwa.org. Cover photo credit: ©stock.adobe.com 2500742E Acknowledgements The present report was produced by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA),under the overall guidance of the Executive Secretary, Mourad Wahba, and the insightful direction of the Leader of theShared Economic Prosperity Cluster, Niranjan Sarangi, in collaboration with the Decision-Support and Data ScienceDivision for the nowcasting exercise. Lead authorAhmed Moummi AuthorsSouraya Zein, Jan Gaska and Mehmet Eris ContributorAhmed Al-Awah CoordinatorSouraya Zein ResearchassistantMaroun Laoun Administrative supportArpy Atamian Key messages Amid heightened global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and strained financial conditions,achieving sustainableandinclusive growthin the Arab region remains a major challenge. Easing inflationandstabilizing oil priceshave provided some relief, however, ongoingconflicts, trade disruptions and elevated global tariff uncertainties continue to weigh on theeconomic outlook. Regionalgross domestic product(GDP) is projected togrowby2.9percentin 2025and3.7percentin 2026, supported by diversification, fiscal reforms and investment innon-hydrocarbon sectors. High-income economies are driving recovery throughdiversification,investmentinmanufacturing,tourism, anddigitalsectors, while middle-income economies remainconstrained by high debt, inflation and external shocks. Conflict-affected low-income economiescontinue to face contraction risks amid fiscal fragility and humanitarian pressures. Regionalinflationis forecast to decline from8.2percentin 2025 to5.4percentin 2027,driven by easing commodity prices and the normalization of supply chains. Exportsfrom the region are expected to grow due to an increase in non-oil exports. However,vulnerabilitiestoexternalbalancespersist due to heightened global tariff uncertainties andregional trade disruptions. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia has adopted aninnovative approachto analysing economic outlooks throughmachine-learning-basednowcastingmodels, piloted for Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Nowcasting integratesconventionalandalternativedatasourcesand enablesnear-real-time GDP estimation, enhancespolicyresponsiveness, and provides ascalableframeworkfor evidence-based economic assessment in the region. Nowcasting estimates contribute significantly to the understanding ofcurrenttrendsandhave the potential toimprovepolicyresponsivenessto real-time developments in themacroeconomic situation across the region. Executive summary Amid heightened global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and strained financial conditions, achieving sustainable andinclusive growth in the Arab region remains a major challenge. While easing inflation and stabilizing oil prices haveprovided some relief, ongoing conflicts, trade disruptions and elevated global tariff uncertainties continue to steer theeconomic outlook. Regional gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 2.9percent in 2025 and 3.7percent in 2026, supportedby diversification, fiscal reforms and investment in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Inflation is expected to decline from 8.2to 5.4percent during the same period, with gradual improvements in fiscal and debt indicators. While global and regional macroecon