在2026年高基数下推动健康的核心业务收益增长

growth amid high base in 2026 Drivinghealthycore businessearnings growth Target PriceUS$47.50(Previous TPUS$46.80)Up/Downside86.5%Current PriceUS$25.47 JD.com (JD) reported (5Mar)4Q25 results: revenue was RMB352.3bn, up1.5%YoY (3Q25:14.9%),1% ahead ofbothour forecast andBloomberg consensus.Non-GAAP NP was RMB1.1bn, down90% YoY due to investment infooddelivery (FD)and high base, but ahead of our forecast and consensus atRMB0.5bn, driven bythebeat on JDR’s OP. Operating loss of RMB14.8bn fornew businessesin4Q25 (3Q25:RMB15.7bnloss)wasslightlyhigherthan ourestimateat RMB14.5bn,while the 20%QoQ decrease in operating lossgenerated from FD businesswas inline withourforecast.Welift2026-27Erevenue/non-GAAP NPforecastsby3%/1-6% tofactorin better-than-fearedrevenue growth ofelectronics and home appliances(E&HA)revenue, as well as China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk Driving healthy JDR earningsgrowthin 2026.Amid high base,JDR inkedrevenue of RMB301.9bn in4Q25,down1.7% YoY(3Q25:+11.4%),1.7%better than consensus, whileits OP reached RMB9.8bn,down2.5% YoY(3Q25:+28%;4Q24:+45%), andOPM of JDR wasdownby0.1pptYoY to3.2%.For 2025, JDR delivered revenue growth of11% YoY andOP growthof 25% YoY. Driven by solidrevenuegrowthingeneral merchandiseandservices, as well as operating efficiency improvement andincreasingscale Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hkStock Data Strongrevenue growthingeneral merchandise and marketplace.Byrevenue stream, within net product revenue,E&HA revenue wasdown12.0% YoYin 4Q25(3Q25:+4.9%). General merchandise revenue was up12.1% YoYduring the same period(3Q25:+18.8%).Within net servicesrevenue,marketplace and ads revenuerose15.0% YoYin 4Q25(3Q25:23.7%),driven bythebalanced growth in both advertisingrevenueandcommission revenue, withcommissionrevenue slightly outperformed.We Targets to narrow FD loss in 2026.Operating loss generated from newbusinesses was RMB14.8bn in4Q25 (3Q25: RMB15.7bn).Managementnoted ac.20%QoQ lossreductionon FD business,which narrowed toRMB10.5bnbased on our estimates,driven by improvement in uniteconomics, while this waspartlyoffset by incremental investment in Jingxiand international business to support business development.ManagementnotedthatFD business has contributed an incremental 2-3% to ads revenue Source: FactSet Update on shareholder return.In 2025, JD repurchasedapproximately91.6mnADSsfor a total ofc.US$3.0bn,whichamounted to approximately6.3%of ADSs outstanding as of 31 Dec 2024.AndJD announcedanannual Business forecasts update and valuation DCF-based target price of US$47.5 Our target priceofUS$47.5isderived fromtheDCF valuation methodology (WACC of11.8% and terminal growth of 1.0%; both unchanged). Risks 1) Consumption recovery takes longer than we expect; 2) more intensified-than-expectedbusiness competition; 3) moreaggressive-than-expected investment on FD businessmayweigh on earnings growth. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accuratelyreflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securitiesand Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days priorto the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report;and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM OUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual inve